Doubling Global Hydropower Capacity by 2050 – What about the Transboundary Dimension?

Both the International Energy Agency and the International Renewable Energy Agency have estimated that the transition to renewable energy to reach ‘Net Zero’ by 2050 will require global hydropower capacity to double. However, any expansion of hydropower must take account of the fact that much of the existing hydropower potential is situated on rivers that are shared between two or more countries. In total 153 countries are dependent on water that flows to and/or from another country. These transboundary rivers account for 60 percent of the world’s global freshwater flow. Any drive towards increased hydropower capacity must inevitably navigate and accommodate these transboundary interdependencies flowing across sovereign borders. Joint transboundary projects may offer the opportunity for countries to maximize shared benefits accruing from their cooperation. However, when conducted unilaterally on a shared river, hydropower projects may be a source of tension amongst riparian countries.

While the governance of transboundary rivers has a long tradition, many shared waters still lack the necessary cooperative arrangements to ensure that they are managed in an equitable and sustainable manner. The monitoring of Sustainable Development Goal indicator 6.5.2 observes that only 24 countries have operational arrangements in place for all their transboundary waters. An added complexity in relation to transboundary hydropower is that it operates in a complex legal environment, which cuts across several legal sub-fields addressing different concerns, including the environment, water resources management, human rights, investment protection, and international trade, as well as multiple levels (local, national, basin, regional and global). Additional complexity arises due to the myriad of different laws, policies, and standards that may apply to any project, depending on the actors involved in its planning, financing, construction, and operation. While legal and policy deficits have often been cited by the hydropower industry as a major barrier to realizing hydropower potential, very little research has explored how those deficits might be addressed. More research is therefore required, firstly to deepen our understanding of the extent to which growth in hydropower capacity will utilize transboundary rivers (both in terms of new projects and the retrofitting of existing multipurpose dams), and secondly, how existing governance settings can be clarified and strengthened to ensure that these projects are implemented in a truly equitable and sustainable way, thereby optimizing the benefits for all.

• Assessments of existing and future share of hydropower generation from transboundary rivers at both regional and global levels.
• Case studies of hydropower projects that offer lessons learned and demonstrate benefits of putting certain governance arrangements in place.
• Critiques of existing laws, policies, and standards relating to hydropower projects, such as OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises, International Hydropower Association’s Sustainability Tools, Equator Principles, and Multilateral Development Bank (MDB) Environmental and Social Safeguard Policies in light of the drive to increase hydropower capacity on transboundary rivers.
• Critiques of potential conflict and/or convergence between different law and policy frameworks operating at multiple levels, such as international water law/watercourse agreements, international investment agreements, energy trading arrangements, multilateral environmental agreements, and human rights instruments.