Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity and Its Influencing Factors: A Perspective on the Carbon Emissions in China's Beef Cattle Industry

Yumeng Sunmingli wang^*

• Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China

Based on panel data from 31 provinces in China covering the beef cattle industry from 2009 to 2022, this paper constructs a framework for carbon emission measurement and systematically analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon emissions, the spatial agglomeration effect, and its driving factors in the beef cattle industry using life cycle assessment, Kernel density estimation, Moran's index, and the spatial Durbin model. The study found that: (1) The total carbon emissions of China's beef cattle industry exhibit a steady growth trend, with significant regional distribution differences.Emissions grow at a slower rate in the eastern region, while the emission levels in the central and western regions, particularly in the western region, are significantly higher than the national average. 1(2) Carbon emissions exhibit " high-high " and " low-low " spatial agglomeration patterns.Emission reduction is effective in the eastern region, while the central region is gradually catching up.The western region remains the core of high emissions. (3) Carbon emission dynamics indicate a trend of spreading from high-emission regions to peripheral areas, with medium-and small-scale farming regions having greater potential for emission reduction. (4) Improvements in environmental 1 Note: Regional classification in this study follows the standard of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, which divides the country into eastern, central, and western regions. The eastern region includes Beijing,