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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Sustain. Food Syst.
Sec. Agricultural and Food Economics
Volume 8 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fsufs.2024.1474813

Analysis of spatial and temporal characteristics and evolution of green total factor productivity in agriculture in the lower Yellow River basin

Provisionally accepted
Junru He Junru He 1Mingyang Han Mingyang Han 2*
  • 1 Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Chengdu, China
  • 2 Minzu University of China, Beijing, Beijing Municipality, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    The construction of ecological barriers in the Yellow River Basin represents a significant step towards reducing agricultural carbon emissions, achieving carbon neutrality, and reaching carbon peaking in China. The diverse agrarian development objectives of various regions within the basin have resulted in a heterogeneous approach to greening agriculture. Therefore, this paper will evaluate the development of carbon sink agriculture across 34 cities and municipalities in the lower Yellow River basin from 2008 to 2021 based on the EBM-GML model, and analyze the spatial-temporal evolution of agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP) in each region through the application of the Moran index, kernel density estimation, and spatial Markov chain analysis. The results demonstrate that agricultural carbon emissions in the Lower Yellow River Basin gradually decreased throughout the study period. Furthermore, overall carbon emission efficiency improved, indicating significant potential for further emission reduction. In addition, Agricultural Green Technology Progress (AGTC) has become a primary driver of AGTFP growth, while Agricultural Green Technology Efficiency (AGEC) has demonstrated a gradual upward trend. Locally, most areas are weakly connected and display an isolated development trend. The results of the kernel density analysis demonstrate a notable degree of mobility in the distributional dynamics of AGTFP growth, characterized by a gradual narrowing of the gap between locations. The transfer of (AGTFP) types in the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin is stable, with a noticeable ‘club convergence’ phenomenon, while geographical conditions significantly influence the transfer of AGTFP types in this region. Based on long-term trend predictions, the future trajectory of AGTFP in the lower Yellow River Basin appears optimistic and is expected to improve progressively, with the overall distribution tending toward equilibrium.

    Keywords: Green agricultural development, Low carbon, Lower Yellow River Basin, Spatial and temporal evolution, Carbon emission efficiency;

    Received: 02 Aug 2024; Accepted: 14 Oct 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 He and Han. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Mingyang Han, Minzu University of China, Beijing, 100081, Beijing Municipality, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.