Kelly M. Suttles ^1* Eileen L. McLellan ² Marika Jaeger ³ Samuel F. Potter ⁴ Aditya P. Ranade ⁴ Brian V. Smoliak ⁴

• ¹ Environmental Defense Fund, Raleigh, United States
• ² Environmental Defense Fund, Washington, D.C., United States
• ³ Environmental Defense Fund, New York, United States
• ⁴ Independent researcher, Minneapolis, United States

Advances in farming technologies and practices have helped farmers to increase crop yields, but continued production increaseswhile needed to feed a growing global populationare being hindered by climate change and other environmental challenges. Kansas, a globally important region for wheat production, is already experiencing threats to staple crop production. This study explores one possible alternative future for Kansas crop production in which farmers could, by crop switching, continue to grow nutrient-rich crops while responding to hotter temperatures and increasing water demand. Interviews with Kansas farmers helped identify feasible crop switching options: sorghum instead of corn (maize), winter rye and winter oats instead of winter wheat, and millet instead of soybeans. Our analysis suggests that a sizeable proportion of current Kansas cropland would need to shift to these alternative crops by 2050 to meet anticipated water constraints and produce equivalent nutritional value under projected climate conditions. Alternative crops could increase from 16% of Kansas' crop area in 2021 to 43% of the area in 2050, resulting in a reduction in 2050 crop water demand of 12% relative to that of the current crop mix. This crop water demand reduction would be concentrated in parts of the state that will experience the greatest change in water needs between today and mid-century due to changing climate conditions. Our analysis shows that, by changing (diversifying) the mix of crops grown, it is biophysically possible for crop production in Kansas to be both sustainable and resilient under future climate conditions. However, achieving a more climate-resilient crop mix on the ground, in Kansas and elsewhere, will require major shifts in the broader agricultural system. Food companies, agricultural lenders, and policymakers can play a key role in enabling farmers to adapt cropping systems in the face of climate and environmental challenges.