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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Sustain. Food Syst.
Sec. Agricultural and Food Economics
Volume 8 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fsufs.2024.1404232

The trade potential of grain crops in the countries along the Belt and Road: Evidence from a stochastic frontier model

Provisionally accepted
Ting Miao Ting Miao 1Pathairat Pastpipatkul Pathairat Pastpipatkul 2*Xinhua Liu Xinhua Liu 1Jianxu Liu Jianxu Liu 3
  • 1 North Minzu University, Yinchuan, Ningxia Hui Region, China
  • 2 Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
  • 3 Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    This study employs the Stochastic Frontier Model (SFM) to analyze trade potential and efficiency in wheat and maize among Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries from 2002 to 2021, encompassing 45 countries for wheat trade and 55 for maize trade. The empirical findings reveal that economic development level, population growth, government efficiency, political stability, and regulatory quality are critical determinants of trade efficiency. Notably, WTO membership exhibits a negative correlation with trade efficiency, potentially reflecting challenges in rule implementation and opportunity utilization among member states. In the context of maize trade, increased arable land area is inversely associated with efficiency, suggesting potential issues in managing large-scale agricultural regions or optimizing land use. The BRI's impact on trade efficiency varies across countries, with Turkey and Hungary showing improved wheat trade efficiency, while Ethiopia and Georgia experienced declines. During the COVID-19 pandemic, effective disease management strategies and diversified trade mechanisms significantly influenced trade efficiency. Furthermore,the study reveals that larger economies do not necessarily outperform small and medium-sized economies in terms of trade potential. These findings contribute significantly to the literature on agricultural trade and offer valuable insights for policymakers, emphasizing the importance of enhancing government efficiency, political stability, and regulatory quality in the context of regional economic development initiatives such as the BRI. This research underscores the need for tailored approaches to trade policy and agricultural management, considering the unique characteristics and challenges faced by different economies along BRI.

    Keywords: Belt and road initiative, Agricultural trade, trade efficiency, Maize, wheat, SfM

    Received: 20 Mar 2024; Accepted: 01 Jul 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Miao, Pastpipatkul, Liu and Liu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Pathairat Pastpipatkul, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, 50200, Thailand

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.