Causal Methods in Clinical Prediction

  • 3,126

    Total downloads

  • 14k

    Total views and downloads

About this Research Topic

Submission closed

Background

Born out of the "causal revolution" at the end of the 20th Century and its subsequent introduction into the field of epidemiology, a clearer distinction between three domains in epidemiological research began to emerge: description, causal inference (or counterfactual prediction), and prediction. While description research is of utmost relevance to answering many epidemiological questions, this Research Topic in Frontiers in Epidemiology focuses on the intersection of prediction and causal inference.
Causal inference research aims to answer questions about cause and effect by contrasting between counterfactual worlds. To obtain an accurate answer to a causal question using observational data, one must identify the underlying data generation process and conduct analyses consistent with the identified process. Indispensable and inherent to this domain is a priori subject-matter knowledge and the use of graphical tools such as directed acyclic graphs.
On the other hand, prediction-focused research questions center around forecasting outcomes in “future” individuals using available information about predictors. In the context of health, this domain is indispensable in supporting (shared) clinical decision-making and in identifying individuals at particular risk of an outcome of interest. Methodologically, prediction methods, which often employ data-driven approaches that are becoming increasingly automated, such as machine learning, are generally agnostic to causal structures.

The contemporary strict separation of causal inference and prediction in epidemiology is useful in the prevention of common methodological fallacies, such as the misinterpretation of risk prediction regression model coefficients as causal effect estimates. Such confusions likely arise because these domains employ the same set of statistical tools. However, this practical division is ultimately a simplification, which masks the fact that when answering clinical prediction questions, data are always the product of a data generation mechanism and therefore, causal tools and thinking can be employed also in the domain of prediction. Recent work has underlined the importance of causal methods in clinical risk prediction; namely, showing how causal knowledge and causal inference tools can be used to select predictors, evaluate the transportability of a clinical prediction model, build clinical prediction models adjusting for treatment drop-in, build fairer models with respect to sensitive attributes such as race and gender, and create more interpretable and impactful models to better inform clinical decision-making. Within this Research Topic, our aim is to collate innovative approaches using causal methods and causal thinking to solve clinical prediction problems, in an effort to bring more attention to the overlap between these two domains.

We welcome both new methodological developments and applied research using causal methods in clinical risk prediction.
Possible submission topics include:
- Addressing the clinical predictor selection problem using causal methods
- Transportability assessment of clinical prediction models informed by causal inference tools
- Adjustment for treatment drop-in relying on counterfactuals in clinical prediction models
- Algorithmic fairness in clinical prediction models relying on causal-based notions of fairness
We also explicitly encourage authors of manuscripts focused on other applied topics at the intersection between causal inference and prediction domains or focused on method developments in this area to submit their work for consideration.

Keywords: Causal Inference, Clinical Risk Prediction, Statistical Methods, Regression Modelling, Counterfactual, Directed Acyclic Graph

Important note: All contributions to this Research Topic must be within the scope of the section and journal to which they are submitted, as defined in their mission statements. Frontiers reserves the right to guide an out-of-scope manuscript to a more suitable section or journal at any stage of peer review.

Topic editors

Frequently asked questions

  • Frontiers' Research Topics are collaborative hubs built around an emerging theme.Defined, managed, and led by renowned researchers, they bring communities together around a shared area of interest to stimulate collaboration and innovation.

    Unlike section journals, which serve established specialty communities, Research Topics are pioneer hubs, responding to the evolving scientific landscape and catering to new communities.

  • The goal of Frontiers' publishing program is to empower research communities to actively steer the course of scientific publishing. Our program was implemented as a three-part unit with fixed field journals, flexible specialty sections, and dynamically emerging Research Topics, connecting communities of different sizes and maturity.

    Research Topics originate from the scientific community. Many of our Research Topics are suggested by existing editorial board members who have identified critical challenges or areas of interest in their field.

  • As an editor, Research Topics will help you build your journal, as well as your community, around emerging, cutting-edge research. As research trailblazers, Research Topics attract high-quality submissions from leading experts all over the world.

    A thriving Research Topic can potentially evolve into a new specialty section if there is sustained interest and a growing community around it.

  • Each Research Topic must be approved by the specialty chief editor, and it falls under the editorial oversight of our editorial boards, supported by our in-house research integrity team. The same standards and rigorous peer review processes apply to articles published as part of a Research Topic as for any other article we publish.

    In 2023, 80% of the Research Topics we published were edited or co-edited by our editorial board members, who are already familiar with their journal's scope, ethos, and publishing model. All other topics are guest edited by leaders in their field, each vetted and formally approved by the specialty chief editor.

  • Publishing your article within a Research Topic with other related articles increases its discoverability and visibility, which can lead to more views, downloads, and citations. Research Topics grow dynamically as more published articles are added, causing frequent revisiting, and further visibility.

    As Research Topics are multidisciplinary, they are cross-listed in several fields and section journals – increasing your reach even more and giving you the chance to expand your network and collaborate with researchers in different fields, all focusing on expanding knowledge around the same important topic.

    Our larger Research Topics are also converted into ebooks and receive social media promotion from our digital marketing team.

     

  • Frontiers offers multiple article types, but it will depend on the field and section journals in which the Research Topic will be featured. The available article types for a Research Topic will appear in the drop-down menu during the submission process.

    Check available article types here 

  • Yes, we would love to hear your ideas for a topic. Most of our Research Topics are community-led and suggested by researchers in the field. Our in-house editorial team will contact you to talk about your idea and whether you’d like to edit the topic. If you’re an early-stage researcher, we will offer you the opportunity to coordinate your topic, with the support of a senior researcher as the topic editor. 

    Suggest your topic here 

  • A team of guest editors (called topic editors) lead their Research Topic. This editorial team oversees the entire process, from the initial topic proposal to calls for participation, the peer review, and final publications.

    The team may also include topic coordinators, who help the topic editors send calls for participation, liaise with topic editors on abstracts, and support contributing authors. In some cases, they can also be assigned as reviewers.

  • As a topic editor (TE), you will take the lead on all editorial decisions for the Research Topic, starting with defining its scope. This allows you to curate research around a topic that interests you, bring together different perspectives from leading researchers across different fields and shape the future of your field. 

     

    You will choose your team of co-editors, curate a list of potential authors, send calls for participation and oversee the peer review process, accepting or recommending rejection for each manuscript submitted.

  • As a topic editor, you're supported at every stage by our in-house team. You will be assigned a single point of contact to help you on both editorial and technical matters. Your topic is managed through our user-friendly online platform, and the peer review process is supported by our industry-first AI review assistant (AIRA).

  • If you’re an early-stage researcher, we will offer you the opportunity to coordinate your topic, with the support of a senior researcher as the topic editor. This provides you with valuable editorial experience, improving your ability to critically evaluate research articles and enhancing your understanding of the quality standards and requirements for scientific publishing, as well as the opportunity to discover new research in your field, and expand your professional network.

  • Yes, certificates can be issued on request. We are happy to provide a certificate for your contribution to editing a successful Research Topic.

  • Research Topics thrive on collaboration and their multi-disciplinary approach around emerging, cutting-edge themes, attract leading researchers from all over the world.

  • As a topic editor, you can set the timeline for your Research Topic, and we will work with you at your pace. Typically, Research Topics are online and open for submissions within a few weeks and remain open for participation for 6 – 12 months. Individual articles within a Research Topic are published as soon as they are ready.

    Find out more about our Research Topics

  • Our fee support program ensures that all articles that pass peer review, including those published in Research Topics, can benefit from open access – regardless of the author's field or funding situation.

    Authors and institutions with insufficient funding can apply for a discount on their publishing fees. A fee support application form is available on our website.

  • In line with our mission to promote healthy lives on a healthy planet, we do not provide printed materials. All our articles and ebooks are available under a CC-BY license, so you can share and print copies.

     

Impact

  • 14kTopic views
  • 10kArticle views
  • 3,126Article downloads
View impact