Pre-Earthquake Observations and Methods for Earthquake Forecasting and Seismic Hazard Reduction

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Background

Understanding the governing principles, which range from long-term tectonic loading and sluggish nucleation to fast rupture propagation, enables estimation of the stress level and change during geophysical observations in seismically active locations. The first step toward earthquake forecasting is the identification of those factors whose space-time dynamics can be connected with the process of crustal deformations preceding earthquakes. Significant progress has been achieved in analysing earthquake spatial-temporal correlations, clustering, and the development of seismicity patterns, encouraging possible earthquake forecasting. Furthermore, earthquake physics addresses fundamental questions in seismology, such as how earthquakes prepare, how seismic rupture begins, propagates, and terminates, what role long-term and short-term processes in the Earth play in earthquake triggering, what role fluids play in earthquake triggering, and what relationship exists between fault dynamics, energy, friction, and other physical parameters of the focal zone. Recent advancements in seismological and in non-seismological observations have resulted in an enormous quantity of data which has substantially increased our capacity to investigate earthquake-related processes at several scales.

Apart from established patterns and probabilistic models of earthquake occurrence, a wealth of newly accessible non-seismological data gathered on a worldwide scale opens new avenues for systematic study and model validation. Numerous geophysical and geochemical observations, ranging from ground deformation patterns to pre-earthquake changes (geochemical, electromagnetic, hydrogeological, geodetic, etc.), made using ground-based or satellite-based techniques, may be related to stress variations in the lithosphere prior to an eventual large earthquake. A critical reassessment of proposed techniques in conjunction with state-of-the-art and unique observations may assist in highlighting desired research directions. The primary goal of the Frontiers in Earth Sciences Research Topic on Pre-Earthquake Observations and Methods for Earthquake Forecasting and Seismic Hazard Reduction is to provide an up-to-date view of the processes preceding earthquake occurrence that can be used to design earthquake forecasting experiments aimed at verifying their accuracy in Test Site areas.

This Research Topic aims to present the state of the art in research on the processes preceding earthquakes, with a particular emphasis on:
a) Systematic analysis, physical interpretation, and modeling of pre-earthquake processes;
b) Model validation and statistical assessment of proposed physical-based precursors;
c) Statistical methods and issues in earthquake forecast validation;
d) Analysis of input data and requirements for real-time model testing;
e) Time-dependent seismic hazard assessment based on space-time characterization of impending earthquakes;
f) Geophysical interpretation of non-seismological parameters associated with crustal deformation processes;
g) Time series analysis of geophysical and geochemical parameters;
h) Modeling of pressure fluctuation in deformation processes;
i) Slow-slip geodetic precursors;
j) Modeling of chemical and physical parameter variations in faulted regions;
k) Spatial and temporal variation of geochemical and hydrogeological features in seismic areas and their relationship to faults and seismic activity;
l) How possible scientific results on earthquake forecasting may be provided to decision-makers in a useful way.

Keywords: earthquake preparation process, earthquake source physics, earthquake forecasting, seismic hazard reduction, earthquake forecasting policies

Important note: All contributions to this Research Topic must be within the scope of the section and journal to which they are submitted, as defined in their mission statements. Frontiers reserves the right to guide an out-of-scope manuscript to a more suitable section or journal at any stage of peer review.

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