Volcanic Forecasting, Crisis Management, and Risk Communication

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About this Research Topic

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Background

An uptake in volcanic unrest and/or eruptive activity is always interesting to discuss from both technical and non-technical aspects. In a society that is densely populated and has vital and strategic assets, a change (increase) in volcanic activity can have a social and economic impact and, in some cases, political impact. Whether the volcano will end up erupting or not, the impact can heavily affect the community depending on the nature and scale of unrest. An effective operational response to volcanic unrest is reliant upon multiple 'themes' working in union, forecasting any activity, managing the response activities during the crisis situation and communicating the risk to multiple layers of stakeholders.

The aim of this collection is to understand complexities in relation to dealing with eruptions and volcanic unrest. The challenges involved will be widely variable from place to place according to its geographical, demographical and community background, expertise of volcanologists, previous experience in disaster management, and ‘similar language’ between volcanologists, disaster management institutions and communities.

Eruption forecasting is ideally carried out before the eruption occurs through a hazard study and is supported by short and long-term monitoring parameters as well as from the history of past eruptions. This description can be logically represented by the event tree method. The event tree provides probabilities of what could happen during the unrest. This is also presented by various scenarios and the possible impacted areas. To successfully forecast, manage and communicate the potential hazard from volcanic events we need to consider both short and long terms activities as well as strategies to collectively strengthen any response.

In ideal conditions, risk mitigation during a volcano crisis will be partly guided by an existing disaster management plan for the volcano which could include a formulation of a contingency plan including different eruption scenarios, protocols for risk communication, disaster training, and evacuation drills. All these processes are supported by regulation. Challenges happen when eruptions occur on volcanoes with long repose time intervals, rapid changes in eruptive activity or when communities and disaster management officials are not adequately prepared.

Risk communication during a crisis is critical to deliver accurate, timely and meaningful information to a variety of stakeholders. The aim is to enable the community and disaster management officials to prepare and take appropriate action according to the information obtained. Social media is one increasingly important tool to quickly disseminate information. The disadvantage of this method is that misunderstanding information can harm the authorities and lead to misleading statements or impressions. In some cases, an approach that respects culture, especially including local wisdom, is traditional and time consuming but is still the best way to build a long-term relationship with a community.

This Research Topic represents cases that can serve as lessons for disaster management during volcanic crises. The challenges that arise in disaster mitigation provide a picture of both good and bad practices and will encourage us to always evaluate and prepare strategies that are better than past experiences.
Research interests include but are not limited to, the following issues:
- Volcanic forecasting and construction of event tree;
- Crisis management, coordination and risk communication;
- Implementation of local wisdom in risk communication and crisis response;
- Cultural gap between scientists and community;
- The role of social media and its problems during volcanic crises;
- The impact of short and long-term crisis.

Research Topic Research topic image

Keywords: forecasting, volcanic eruption, natural hazard, risk mitigation, event tree, probability, unrest, scenario, crisis response, hazard, risk communication, stakeholder, local wisdom, social media, cultural gap

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