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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Water
Sec. Water Resource Management
Volume 6 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/frwa.2024.1507961
This article is part of the Research Topic Advancement in Hydrological Modeling and Water Resources Management for achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) View all 11 articles

Climate Change Impacts on the Chiffa Basin (Northern Algeria) Using Bias-Corrected RCM Data

Provisionally accepted
Amina Zoubida MADANI Amina Zoubida MADANI 1Taoufik Hermassi Taoufik Hermassi 2*Sabrina TAIBI Sabrina TAIBI 3Hammouda DAKHLAOUI Hammouda DAKHLAOUI 4Mohamed MECHERGUI Mohamed MECHERGUI 1
  • 1 Institut National Agronomique de Tunisie, Tunis, Tunisia
  • 2 National Research Institute for Rural Engineering, Water and Forestry (INRGREF), Ariana, Tunisia
  • 3 University of Blida, Blida, Blida, Algeria
  • 4 Higher National Engineering School of Tunis, Tunis, Tunisia

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    This study aims to assess the ability of Quantile mapping (QM) and Delta change (DC) bias correction methods to improve hydrological simulations of the Chiffa basin in Northern Algeria. The results are provided by the conceptual rainfall-runoff GR2M model, coupled with the precipitation simulations from the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model RCA4 of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (Cordex-Africa) forced by two global circulation models (MPI-ESM-LR and CRNM-CM5). The GR2M model was chosen for its robustness in Mediterranean climate and its successful application in similar catchments. The Cordex-Africa data provides high-resolution regional climate projections tailored to the African continent. The bias correction methods were chosen for their complementary approaches and proven effectiveness in semi-arid regions.We propose hydrological projection over the future period (for) 2070-2099 under two Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results showed that it is inadequate to use raw precipitation data to reflect future rainfall trends and to simulate the future flows. The bias correction methods significantly improved model performance, with the coefficient of determination (R²) increasing from approximately 0.44-0.53 to 0.83-0.97, indicating a substantially better representation of observed flow patterns. In contrast, the flows simulated from the corrected rainfall data reveal better results, highlighting the importance of bias correction for hydrological impact studies. Finally, the regional climate models project a 5% to 8% decrease in annual flows under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios by the end of the 21st century.Based on these findings, we recommend implementing specific adaptation measures including improved irrigation efficiency, development of water storage infrastructure, and adoption of droughtresistant agricultural practices. Future research should focus on employing multivariate bias correction methods, utilizing higher-resolution climate data (≤10km), and implementing ensemble modelling approaches to better characterize uncertainties.

    Keywords: Climate change impacts, CORDEX-Africa, delta change, Future flow projections, GR2M, hydrological modelling, Northern Algeria, Quantile mapping

    Received: 08 Oct 2024; Accepted: 27 Nov 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 MADANI, Hermassi, TAIBI, DAKHLAOUI and MECHERGUI. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Taoufik Hermassi, National Research Institute for Rural Engineering, Water and Forestry (INRGREF), Ariana, Tunisia

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