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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Oncol.
Sec. Radiation Oncology
Volume 14 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fonc.2024.1431140

External validation of radiobiological models for local control prediction in lung cancer patients treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy

Provisionally accepted
Bao-Tian Huang Bao-Tian Huang 1*Pei-Xian Lin Pei-Xian Lin 2Ying Wang Ying Wang 1Li-Mei Luo Li-Mei Luo 3
  • 1 Department of Radiation Oncology, Cancer Hospital of Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong, China
  • 2 Department of Nosocomial Infection Management, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong, China
  • 3 Department of Radiation Oncology, Guangzhou Medical University Cancer Hospital, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    The debate regarding the accuracy of radiobiological models for local control (LC) prediction in lung cancer patients undergoing stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) remains unresolved. The study seeks to externally validate the predictive efficacy of radiobiological models using single-institutional SBRT database.The cohort comprised 153 patients diagnosed with primary or metastatic lung cancer who underwent SBRT. The study employed three radiobiological models to estimate the probability of 2-year LC: the Liu model, the Klement model, and the Ohri model. Furthermore, the likelihood of 3-year LC was predicted using the Liu model, the Klement model, the Gucken model, and the Santiago model. The performance of the prediction models was assessed through the AUC values of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the calibration plots.Local recurrence was observed in 38.6% of patients (59/153) within two years, and in 43.1% (66/153) within three years after the radiotherapy. The ROC curves indicated discriminative power for all the 2-year and 3-year models, with the exception of the Klement model. The Ohri model showed a significantly improved discriminative ability than the Klement model for 2-year prediction, while it was not statistically significant when compared to the Liu model. However, no significant differences were found among the four models in terms of 3-year LC prediction. The calibration plots, using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, confirmed that the predicted probabilities of the models were in agreement with the actual observation with P>0.05, except for the 2-year LC prediction using the Klement model.Considering the balance between prediction accuracy and model simplicity, it is recommended to utilize the Ohri model for 2-year LC prediction and either the Gucken model or 3 / 27 the Santiago model for 3-year LC prediction.

    Keywords: External validation, Radiobiological model, local control prediction, lung cancer, stereotactic body radiation therapy

    Received: 11 May 2024; Accepted: 20 Dec 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Huang, Lin, Wang and Luo. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Bao-Tian Huang, Department of Radiation Oncology, Cancer Hospital of Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.