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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Environ. Sci.
Sec. Land Use Dynamics
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1511629
Spatiotemporal variation characteristics of ecosystem carbon storage in Zhengzhou and future multi-scenario simulation prediction
Provisionally accepted- Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou, China
As the typical megacity in the Central Plains, the simulation and prediction of Zhengzhou's future land use and ecosystem carbon storage are of great significance for regional green and coordinated development. Based on land use data and CMIP6 data, the study simulated land use types from 2030 to 2050 through PLUS model. Then the InVEST model is used to estimate its ecosystem carbon storage. The results show that: (1) Arable land is the main type of land use in Zhengzhou from 2000 to 2020. During the period, the conversion between land use type is mainly manifested as the conversion of arable land into construction land. The distribution of the built-up area has changed from one center with multiple scattered dots to one center with a radial spiderweb-like pattern. (2) In 2050, arable land in the SSP126 scenario is the only one of the three scenarios to decline, but the area of forest land and so on in this scenario is the largest of the three. The area changes trend of each land use type in the two scenarios of SSP245 and SSP585 are relatively consistent. (3) The areas with high ecosystem carbon storage value are mainly distributed in the forest area in the west of the study area. The regional ecosystem carbon storage value of SSP126 scenario in 2050 is the highest, which is 5.7762×10 7 t. The ecosystem carbon storage value of SSP585 scenario decreased the most, with a total reduction of 0.6667×10 7 t. (4) The spatiotemporal variation of ecosystem carbon storage in Zhengzhou is the result of natural and social factors, among which the average annual temperature is the strongest explanation. The study is intended to serve as a reference for the harmonious development of man and nature in the study area. Keywords： Ecosystem carbon storage; CMIP6; Zhengzhou; PLUS model; InVEST model Q 0
Keywords: Ecosystem carbon storage, CMIP6, Zhengzhou, Plus model, InVEST model
Received: 21 Oct 2024; Accepted: 17 Mar 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Li, Li, Li, Chen, Guo, Li, Li and Ji. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Genming Li, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou, China
Guangxing Ji, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou, China
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