Skip to main content

METHODS article

Front. Clim.
Sec. Climate Mobility
Volume 6 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1384295
This article is part of the Research Topic Climate Mobility Modeling: Methodological Advances and Future Prospects View all 5 articles

Projecting Future Migration with Bayesian Hierarchical Gravity Models of Migration: An application to Africa

Provisionally accepted
Fabien Cottier Fabien Cottier *
  • Columbia University, New York City, United States

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    In this paper, I present and discuss a novel approach to parameterize a gravity model of migration using Bayesian hierarchical models with random intercepts that are free to vary by country of origin, destination, and directed origin-destination country pairs. I then utilize this model to project transboundary migration flows between African countries to the horizon 2050. To do so, I use data on projected future crop yields and water availability from the ISIMIP2b scenarios in combination with projections on future economic and demographic trends from the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The results indicate that over the period 2010-2050 between 8 to 17 millions people are projected to migrate internationally on the African continent. Yet, only a small portion of these migrants will be induced to move because of climate change. To the contrary, comparisons between SSPs scenarios suggests that economic development will have a far larger impact on projected level of international migration on the continent than climate change.

    Keywords: Climate Change, Migration, International migration, Bayesian hierachical model, Africa

    Received: 09 Feb 2024; Accepted: 11 Nov 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Cottier. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Fabien Cottier, Columbia University, New York City, United States

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.