Tropical cyclones (TCs) have caused billions of dollars in damage and thousands of lives lost globally over the past fifty years. Mitigating this massive socioeconomic impact requires accurate forecasts of TC evolution. Substantial progress has been made in recent years in forecasting TC position. However, progress in forecasting TC intensity and structure has been more slowly incremental. Many challenges remain in forecasting intensity and structure changes, such as rapid intensification, eyewall replacement cycles, and impacts of complex vertical wind shear. It is imperative to advance our knowledge of intensity and structure changes on theoretical, observational, and numerical modeling grounds so that TC forecasts become more accurate in the future.
The goal of this Research Topic is to collect the latest advances on theories, observations, numerical modeling, and forecasting of TC intensity and structure changes. These include intensity and structure changes resulting from environmental influences (such as ocean interactions, vertical wind shear, trough interactions, upper-level outflow, and dry/dusty air intrusions), internal influences (such as inner-core dynamic instabilities and mixing processes, eyewall replacement cycles, spiral rainband dynamics, and air-sea interactions), and the mutual interaction of the internal and external processes. Studies on the role of physical processes associated with the boundary layer, clouds, and radiation are encouraged. Advances on quantifying intensification rate theories and intensification mechanisms, and new development of forecasting techniques for TC intensity and structure are also welcomed.
We welcome Original Research and Review Articles from theoretical, observational, numerical modeling, and forecasting perspectives on TC intensity and structure change. Articles can include, but are not limited to, the following topics:
• Internal and external influences;
• Multiscale interactions;
• Rapid intensity (intensification/weakening) and structure changes;
• Physical processes (e.g., boundary layer, cloud microphysics, and radiation);
• Maximum potential intensity;
• Intensification mechanisms; and
• Machine learning and/or numerical model techniques for intensity and structure prediction.
Tropical cyclones (TCs) have caused billions of dollars in damage and thousands of lives lost globally over the past fifty years. Mitigating this massive socioeconomic impact requires accurate forecasts of TC evolution. Substantial progress has been made in recent years in forecasting TC position. However, progress in forecasting TC intensity and structure has been more slowly incremental. Many challenges remain in forecasting intensity and structure changes, such as rapid intensification, eyewall replacement cycles, and impacts of complex vertical wind shear. It is imperative to advance our knowledge of intensity and structure changes on theoretical, observational, and numerical modeling grounds so that TC forecasts become more accurate in the future.
The goal of this Research Topic is to collect the latest advances on theories, observations, numerical modeling, and forecasting of TC intensity and structure changes. These include intensity and structure changes resulting from environmental influences (such as ocean interactions, vertical wind shear, trough interactions, upper-level outflow, and dry/dusty air intrusions), internal influences (such as inner-core dynamic instabilities and mixing processes, eyewall replacement cycles, spiral rainband dynamics, and air-sea interactions), and the mutual interaction of the internal and external processes. Studies on the role of physical processes associated with the boundary layer, clouds, and radiation are encouraged. Advances on quantifying intensification rate theories and intensification mechanisms, and new development of forecasting techniques for TC intensity and structure are also welcomed.
We welcome Original Research and Review Articles from theoretical, observational, numerical modeling, and forecasting perspectives on TC intensity and structure change. Articles can include, but are not limited to, the following topics:
• Internal and external influences;
• Multiscale interactions;
• Rapid intensity (intensification/weakening) and structure changes;
• Physical processes (e.g., boundary layer, cloud microphysics, and radiation);
• Maximum potential intensity;
• Intensification mechanisms; and
• Machine learning and/or numerical model techniques for intensity and structure prediction.