The tropical oceans are host to some of the most impactful climate phenomena on the planet. Originating in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates Earth’s year-to-year climate variability, elevating the risks of weather, climate, and ocean extremes in the Pacific and beyond, including the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. In other basins, the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Atlantic Niño, among other modes of variability, operate and dynamically interact with remote processes including ENSO. Modulating these climate variations are decadal climate variability and long-term background climate trends, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the ongoing warming of the tropical oceans. Further complexity is introduced by interactions with intra-seasonal phenomena such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation.
As greenhouse-gas emissions continue to increase, it is crucial to understand how and whether the dynamics and impacts of tropical climate variability might change in the future. To enhance our knowledge of historical and future behaviour of tropical climate variations, a range of tools have been developed and utilized, ranging from theoretical frameworks to paleo and climate reconstructions, modelling, and observations. Projecting the future climate has been advanced via the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), an initiative of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). CMIP, currently in its sixth phase (CMIP6), facilitates a coordinated analysis of climate models from various institutions around the world. Multi-model analysis is a powerful tool for process understanding of future projections, their uncertainties, and the impact of model biases. Projection uncertainties can be further studied utilising multi-ensemble experiments from individual models, enabling investigation into the role of internal variability; and high-resolution climate models to investigate the impact of resolving fine-scale physical processes.
This Research Topic aims to address how and whether the dynamics and impacts of tropical climate variability have already changed and how they may change in the future. Manuscripts based on these various approaches are welcomed. Original research manuscripts, reviews, and expert commentaries are welcomed.
The tropical oceans are host to some of the most impactful climate phenomena on the planet. Originating in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates Earth’s year-to-year climate variability, elevating the risks of weather, climate, and ocean extremes in the Pacific and beyond, including the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. In other basins, the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Atlantic Niño, among other modes of variability, operate and dynamically interact with remote processes including ENSO. Modulating these climate variations are decadal climate variability and long-term background climate trends, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the ongoing warming of the tropical oceans. Further complexity is introduced by interactions with intra-seasonal phenomena such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation.
As greenhouse-gas emissions continue to increase, it is crucial to understand how and whether the dynamics and impacts of tropical climate variability might change in the future. To enhance our knowledge of historical and future behaviour of tropical climate variations, a range of tools have been developed and utilized, ranging from theoretical frameworks to paleo and climate reconstructions, modelling, and observations. Projecting the future climate has been advanced via the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), an initiative of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). CMIP, currently in its sixth phase (CMIP6), facilitates a coordinated analysis of climate models from various institutions around the world. Multi-model analysis is a powerful tool for process understanding of future projections, their uncertainties, and the impact of model biases. Projection uncertainties can be further studied utilising multi-ensemble experiments from individual models, enabling investigation into the role of internal variability; and high-resolution climate models to investigate the impact of resolving fine-scale physical processes.
This Research Topic aims to address how and whether the dynamics and impacts of tropical climate variability have already changed and how they may change in the future. Manuscripts based on these various approaches are welcomed. Original research manuscripts, reviews, and expert commentaries are welcomed.
