Misinformation spreads fast in times of crises, corroding public trust and causing further harm to already vulnerable communities. In earthquake seismology, the most common misinformation and misleading popular beliefs generally relate to earthquake prediction, earthquake genesis, and potential causal relations between climate, weather and earthquake occurrence. As a public earthquake information and dissemination center, the Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Center (EMSC) has been confronted many times with this issue over the years. In this paper we describe several types of earthquake misinformation that the EMSC had to deal with during the 2018 Mayotte earthquake crisis and the 2021 La Palma seismic swarm. We present frequent misinformation topics such as earthquake predictions seen on our communication channels. Finally, we expose how, based on desk studies and users' surveys, the EMSC has progressively improved its communication strategy and tools to fight earthquake misinformation and restore trust in science. In this paper we elaborate on the observed temporality patterns for earthquake misinformation and the implications this may have to limit the magnitude of the phenomenon. We also discuss the importance of social, psychological and cultural factors in the appearance and therefore in the fight against misinformation. Finally, we emphasize the need to constantly adapt to new platforms, new beliefs, and advances in science to stay relevant and not allow misinformation to take hold.
Misinformation carries the potential for immense damage to public understanding of science and for evidence-based decision making at an individual and policy level. Our research explores the following questions within seismology: which claims can be considered misinformation, which are supported by a consensus, and which are still under scientific debate? Consensus and debate are important to quantify, because where levels of scientific consensus on an issue are high, communication of this fact may itself serve as a useful tool in combating misinformation. This is a challenge for earthquake science, where certain theories and facts in seismology are still being established. The present study collates a list of common public statements about earthquakes and provides–to the best of our knowledge–the first elicitation of the opinions of 164 earth scientists on the degree of verity of these statements. The results provide important insights for the state of knowledge in the field, helping identify those areas where consensus messaging may aid in the fight against earthquake related misinformation and areas where there is currently lack of consensus opinion. We highlight the necessity of using clear, accessible, jargon-free statements with specified parameters and precise wording when communicating with the public about earthquakes, as well as of transparency about the uncertainties around some issues in seismology.
Virtual Operations Support Teams are groups of institutionalized digital volunteers in the field of disaster management who conduct Social Media Analytics tasks for decision-makers in Emergency Operation Centers (EOCs) during hazard situations such as floods. Through interagency integration into EOC structures, the volunteers provide analytical support using advanced tools and monitoring various social media platforms. The goal of VOSTs is to increase decision-makers’ situational awareness through need-oriented analysis and to improve decision-making by providing actionable information in a time-critical work context. In this case study, the data collected during the 2021 flood in Wuppertal, Germany by 22 VOST analysts was processed and analyzed. It was found that information from eight social media platforms could be classified into 23 distinct categories. The analysts’ prioritizations indicate differences in the formats of information and platforms. Disaster-related posts that pose a threat to the affected population’s health and safety (e.g., requests for help or false information) were more commonly prioritized than other posts. Image-heavy content was also rated higher than text-heavy data. A subsequent survey of EOC decision-makers examined the impact of VOST information on situational awareness during this flood. It also asked how actionable information impacted decisions. We found that VOST information contributes to expanded situational awareness of decision-makers and ensures people-centered risk and crisis communication. Based on the results from this case study, we discuss the need for future research in the area of integrating VOST analysts in decision-making processes in the field of time-critical disaster management.
Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems aim to warn end-users of incoming ground shaking from earthquakes that have ruptured further afield, potentially reducing risks to lives and properties. EEW is a socio-technical system involving technical and social processes. This paper contributes to advancing EEW research by conducting a literature review investigating the social science knowledge gap in EEW systems. The review of 70 manuscripts found that EEW systems could benefit society, and the benefits may go beyond its direct function for immediate earthquake response. The findings also show that there are social processes involved in designing, developing, and implementing people-centered EEW systems. Therefore, social science research should not just be concerned with the end-user response but also investigate various stakeholders' involvement throughout the development process of EEW systems. Additionally, EEW is a rapidly evolving field of study, and social science research must take a proactive role as EEW technological capacities improve further and becomes more accessible to the public. To improve EEW effectiveness, further research is needed, including (1) advancing our understanding of why people take protective action or not, and ways to encourage appropriate action when alerted; (2) enhancing public understanding, investigating best practices for communicating, educating, and engaging with the public about EEW and overall earthquake resilience; and (3) keeping up with technological advances and societal changes and investigating how these changes impact communities' interactions with EEW from various standpoints including legal perspectives.
Because of its ubiquitous nature and catastrophic impacts, flood information should be readily available and continually evaluated, to maximize utility for the public and professionals. Web-based tools can fill existing needs for actionable information to inform decisions regarding flood damage mitigation for new and existing structures. The goal of this research is to identify the current capabilities, gaps, and future demands of Web-based flood communication systems. To understand the current and potential niche of Web-based flood tools, a review of the literature concerning the effectiveness of mass media, grassroots-based “citizen science” efforts, and social media in communicating flood risk is conducted. Then, the strengths of 50 major, freely-available, Web-based flood information portals are reviewed. Results suggest that mass media often provide actionable information, especially for short-term benefit immediately before, during, and immediately after the flood for individuals and community leaders. Citizen science and grassroots efforts encourage planning strategies to prevent or mitigate flood. Social media is most beneficial in raising awareness of the flood hazard and communicating short- and long-term mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, while mass media, citizen science, and social media have revolutionized the way that people plan for, survive, and recover from floods, their utility is largely restricted to addressing short-term information needs at the meso-scale or broader and/or conveying information about singular events to scientists and/or other professional interests. Actionable information to inform long-term planning and mitigating flood, for both the public and community leaders, remains lacking. A particular need is for communication mechanisms that satisfy several criteria simultaneously: wide broadcast, appealing delivery method, and focus on enhancing decision-making for long-term needs rather than solely for short-term benefit. Particularly useful would be a new, webtool that provides sufficient functionality to enhance flood risk reduction decision making, considering both the costs and benefits of mitigation.
Frontiers in Earth Science
Sediment Dynamics and Geohazards in Estuaries and Deltas – Volume II