Clinical reasoning in veterinary medicine is often based on clinicians’ personal experience in combination with information derived from publications describing cohorts of patients. Studies on the use of scientific methods for patient individual decision making are largely lacking. This applies to the prediction of the individual underlying pathology in seizuring dogs as well. The aim of this study was to apply machine learning to the prediction of the risk of structural epilepsy in dogs with seizures.
Dogs with a history of seizures were retrospectively as well as prospectively included. Data about clinical history, neurological examination, diagnostic tests performed as well as the final diagnosis were collected. For data analysis, the Bayesian Network and Random Forest algorithms were used. A total of 33 features for Random Forest and 17 for Bayesian Network were available for analysis. The following four feature selection methods were applied to select features for further analysis: Permutation Importance, Forward Selection, Random Selection and Expert Opinion. The two algorithms Bayesian Network and Random Forest were trained to predict structural epilepsy using the selected features.
A total of 328 dogs of 119 different breeds were identified retrospectively between January 2017 and June 2021, of which 33.2% were diagnosed with structural epilepsy. An overall of 89,848 models were trained. The Bayesian Network in combination with the Random feature selection performed best. It was able to predict structural epilepsy with an accuracy of 0.969 (sensitivity: 0.857, specificity: 1.000) among all dogs with seizures using the following features: age at first seizure, cluster seizures, seizure in last 24 h, seizure in last 6 month, and seizure in last year.
Machine learning algorithms such as Bayesian Networks and Random Forests identify dogs with structural epilepsy with a high sensitivity and specificity. This information could provide some guidance to clinicians and pet owners in their clinical decision-making process.