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BRIEF RESEARCH REPORT article

Front. Trop. Dis
Sec. Tropical Disease Epidemiology and Ecology
Volume 5 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fitd.2024.1466207
This article is part of the Research Topic One Health and Preparedness for Disease X in the Tropics: Spillover Prevention, Surveillance, Vaccines and Drugs View all 9 articles

Are we prepared to adequately assess the impact of emerging diseases and future pandemics? Excess Mortality Associated with Chikungunya Epidemic in Southeast Brazil, 2023

Provisionally accepted
André Ricardo Ribas Freitas André Ricardo Ribas Freitas 1*Antonio Silva Lima Neto Antonio Silva Lima Neto 2Rosana Rodrigues Rosana Rodrigues 1Erneson Oliveira Erneson Oliveira 3José S. Andrade Jr. José S. Andrade Jr. 4Luciano P. Cavalcanti Luciano P. Cavalcanti 5
  • 1 São Leopoldo Mandic School, Campinas, Brazil
  • 2 Faculty of Medicine, University of Fortaleza, Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil
  • 3 Physics Department, University of Fortaleza, Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil
  • 4 Physics Department, Federal University of Ceara, Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil
  • 5 Public Health Department, Federal University of Ceara, Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    The chikungunya virus (CHIKV) was first detected in Brazil in 2014 and has since caused major epidemics. In 2023, a major chikungunya epidemic occurred in Minas Gerais, one of the most populous states in the country.We analyzed the North and Northeast Health Macroregions of Minas Gerais, with 2.5 million inhabitants. The study used epidemiological data from the Ministry of Health's laboratory surveillance, disease notification and mortality systems. A robust Poisson regression model was constructed to estimate expected monthly mortality. Excess deaths were calculated by comparing observed deaths with model estimates during the epidemic period.During the epidemic, there were 890 excess deaths attributed to chikungunya, translating into a mortality rate of 35.1/100,000 inhabitants. The excess mortality rate was significantly 60 times higher than the deaths reported by surveillance, with only 15 confirmed deaths. The correlation between excess deaths and laboratory-confirmed chikungunya cases was strong, while the correlation with dengue and COVID-19 was not statistically significant. The results highlighted the serious underestimation of chikungunya mortality by epidemiological surveillance.During the same year, only 420 chikungunya deaths were reported by all PAHO member countries. Routine epidemiological surveillance systemsTraditional epidemiological surveillance cannot capture the full impact of this disease. Excess mortality is a key measure for understanding the impact of epidemics, as demonstrated by COVID-19 and influenza pandemics. The study highlights the need for complementary tools to traditional surveillance to better assess impacts on morbidity and mortality and support priority setting in public health interventions.

    Keywords: Chikungunya, Arbovirus, emerging disease, Pandemics, Tropical Diseases, Excess deaths

    Received: 17 Jul 2024; Accepted: 17 Sep 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Freitas, Lima Neto, Rodrigues, Oliveira, Andrade Jr. and Cavalcanti. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: André Ricardo Ribas Freitas, São Leopoldo Mandic School, Campinas, Brazil

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