This study delves into the intricate dynamics between fiscal policies supporting agriculture and the non-linear influence of agricultural science and technology innovation on enhancing agricultural resilience. We conducted research across 31 provinces (including autonomous regions and municipalities) in China from 2007 to 2021.
By constructing the evaluation index system of agricultural resilience, the entropy value method is used to measure the value of agricultural resilience, and then standard deviation ellipse and center of gravity migration analysis, benchmark regression model, heterogeneity analysis, threshold regression model are used to analyze the relationship between agricultural science and technology innovation, fiscal policies supporting agriculture and agricultural resilience.
(1) The analysis of the spatio-temporal evolution trend shows that the overall development of China’s agricultural resilience is relatively stable, the resilience range is expanding, and the geographical area with the southeast as the center of gravity presents a stronger pulling effect; (2) The benchmark regression model shows that agricultural science and technology innovation has a significant positive effect on agricultural resilience; (3) Agricultural science and technology innovation plays a nonlinear role in increasing agricultural resilience when fiscal policies supporting agriculture are used as a threshold variable. (4) Heterogeneity analysis highlights stronger promotion of agricultural resilience through science and technology innovation in non-main producing areas and economically underdeveloped regions.
To address this, policymakers should leverage the resilience of the Southeast, boost innovation capacity, tailor innovation to local needs, and reinforce fiscal policies supporting agriculture. These insights provide valuable direction for policymakers in crafting effective measures to enhance agricultural resilience.