A Survival Analysis of Dropout among French Swimmers

Audrey Difernand ^1* Alexia Mallet ^1,2 Quentin De Larochelambert ^1,2 Robin Pla ^1,3 Andy Marc ^1,2 Kilian Barlier ^1,2 Juliana Antero ^1,2 Jean-Francois Toussaint ^1,2,4 Adrien Sedeaud ^1,2

• ¹ Institut national du sport, de l'expertise et de la performance (INSEP), Paris, France
• ² EA7329 Institut de Recherche BioMédical et d'Epidémiologie du Sport (IRMES), Paris, France
• ³ French Swimming Federation, Clichy, France
• ⁴ Service de Médecine du Sport et activités physiques adaptées - CIMS, Hôpital Hôtel-Dieu, Paris, France

This study examines the dropout rates among French swimmers based on performance levels, sex, and relative age. Using data from 160,861 swimmers under the age of 21, we analyzed the distribution of birth quarters and dropout rates across performance levels. Chi-squared tests were conducted to confirm the significant effect of birth quarter on performance. Kaplan-Meier Survival (KMS) curves were used to evaluate and interpret the impact of sex and relative age on dropout trends. The results show that dropout peaks occur at 13.16 years for girls and 17.50 years for boys. Analyzing by age year, at 13 years, the top 10% of female swimmers exhibit a dropout rate of 8.7% (9.9% for males), while the bottom 10% show a much higher rate of 78.1% (69.3% for males). By 17 years, the dropout rate rises to 39.6% (28.6% for males) for the top 10% and 91.7% (83.4% for males) for the bottom 10%. KMS curves, stratified by age, reveal similar dropout trends for both sexes below the age of 13. However, after this age, the dropout rate increases more sharply among females, reaching a maximum difference of 4.8% at 17.9 years. Disparities in dropout rates based on birth quarters are most pronounced at 12.7 years for girls (10%) and at 14.7 years for boys (8.1%). This study underscores the significant influence of sex, relative age, and performance level on dropout rates among French swimmers. Higher performance levels are associated with lower dropout rates, and female swimmers display consistently higher dropout rates than their male counterparts.