AUTHOR=Barbry Alexis , Lerebourg Lucie , Racil Ghazi , Jlid Mohamed Chedly , Coquart Jérémy 

TITLE=Valid and accurate simple equation to predict 3,000-m steeplechase performance

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Sports and Active Living

VOLUME=6

YEAR=2024

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/sports-and-active-living/articles/10.3389/fspor.2024.1402792

DOI=10.3389/fspor.2024.1402792

ISSN=2624-9367

ABSTRACT=<sec><title>Introduction</title><p>Predict running performances is very important for athletes and trainers. Sport researchers have therefore developed certain tools to predict running performances, but only in non-obstacle races. This study aimed to develop and test the validity and accuracy of an equation for predicting 3,000-m steeplechase performance (<italic>Perf<sub>Steeple</sub></italic>).</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>The official rankings of French runners for the 3,000-m track-running (<italic>Perf<sub>3000</sub></italic>) and 3,000-m steeplechase events were examined. Age, height and body mass were collected. From 146 included athletes, two groups were randomly composed: one comprising 80% of the sample (<italic>n</italic> = 117) to develop a simple equation to predict <italic>Perf<sub>Steeple</sub></italic> (<italic>i.e.</italic>, development group) and the other comprising the remaining 20% (<italic>n</italic> = 29) to test the validity and accuracy of the developed prediction equation (<italic>i.e.</italic>, cross-validation group).</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>The simple prediction equation included <italic>Perf<sub>3000</sub></italic> and age: <inline-formula><mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="IM1"><mml:mi>P</mml:mi><mml:mi>e</mml:mi><mml:mi>r</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi>f</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>S</mml:mi><mml:mi>t</mml:mi><mml:mi>e</mml:mi><mml:mi>e</mml:mi><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mi>l</mml:mi><mml:mi>e</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mo>−</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mn>57</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn>165</mml:mn><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn>1</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn>147</mml:mn><mml:mo>×</mml:mo><mml:mi>P</mml:mi><mml:mi>e</mml:mi><mml:mi>r</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi>f</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mn>3000</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn>0</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn>955</mml:mn><mml:mo>×</mml:mo><mml:mi>a</mml:mi><mml:mi>g</mml:mi><mml:mi>e</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>. No significant difference was noted between the actual and predicted performances. Predicted performances were significantly correlated with the actual ones, with a very high correlation coefficient (<italic>p </italic>&lt; 0.001; <italic>r</italic> = 0.929). Bias and 95% limits of agreement were −5 ± 24 s, <italic>i.e.</italic>, −0.8 ± 7.6%. In 95 of 100 new predictions, the difference between actual and predicted performance would be less or equal to—5 ± 24 s.</p></sec><sec><title>Discussion</title><p>The study confirms the validity and accuracy of the equation for predicting <italic>Perf<sub>Steeple</sub></italic>. Predictions using this simple equation may be used in training and competitions for athletes and coaches. <italic>Perf<sub>Steeple</sub></italic> = −57,165 + 1,147 X <italic>Perf<sub>3000</sub></italic> + 0,955 X <italic>age</italic>.</p></sec>