95% of researchers rate our articles as excellent or good
Learn more about the work of our research integrity team to safeguard the quality of each article we publish.
Find out more
ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Environmental Health and Exposome
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1579716
Temporal trends of particulate matter pollution and its health burden, 1990-2021, with projections to 2036: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Provisionally accepted- 1 Tianjin University, Tianjin, China
- 2 Institute of Disaster and Emergency Medicine, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China
- 3 Tianjin Fourth Central Hospital, Tianjin, Hebei, China
- 4 Tianjin Medical College, Tianjin, China
- 5 Medical Innovation Research Division of the Chinese PLA General Hospita, Beijing, China
Background: Particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) is a leading global health risk factor.We analyzed the spatiotemporal trends of diseases attributable to PM2.5 at global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2021.Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we assessed global, regional, and national deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to PM2.5, along with age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and agestandardized DALY rates (ASDR), categorized by age, sex, year, location, and disease type. We used average annual percentage change (AAPC) to illustrate trends from 1990 to 2021. Spearman correlation analysis was conducted to examine the relationship between the socio-demographic index (SDI) and age-standardized rates (ASRs) across 204 countries. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was used to project trends for 2022-2036.In 2021, PM2.5 exposure contributed to 7.83 million deaths and 231.51 million DALYs globally. The age-standardized rates decreased to 95.69 per 100,000 for deaths (AAPC = -2.12) and 2984.47 per 100,000 for DALYs (AAPC = -2.22), compared to 1990. Disease burdens related to PM2.5, as reflected by ASMR and ASDR, declined across SDI quintiles and GBD super regions from 1990 to 2021. The low SDI quintile had the highest disease burden (ASMR: 211.39, ASDR: 6,114.26). Correlation analysis revealed a significant negative relationship between ASRs and SDI. South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa experienced the highest disease burdens. Males had higher disease burdens than females globally and in all regions. The burden was particularly severe for children under five and older adults. Ischemic heart disease and stroke were the leading causes of PM2.5-related deaths and DALYs. Diabetes mellitus saw an increase in both deaths and DALYs. The BAPC model predicts continued declines in PM2.5related ASDR and ASMR over the next 15 years.With population growth and an aging demographic, the public health burden associated with PM2.5 exposure remains a major concern. It is imperative to develop targeted and proactive strategies that account for the unique circumstances and challenges of different regions.
Keywords: burden of disease, Particulate matter pollution, PM2.5, Temporal Trends, Level-3 diseases, projection
Received: 19 Feb 2025; Accepted: 20 Mar 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Fang, Di, Xu, Shen, Fan, Hou and Li. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Shike Hou, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China
Xiaoxue Li, Medical Innovation Research Division of the Chinese PLA General Hospita, Beijing, China
Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.