Risk Aversion or Adaptation? Public Choices in Sports Participation under Climate Risks

Qiuyue Zhang ¹ Long Luo ² Xiaobin Guan ^3* Yu Cao ^3* Yili Lin ⁴ Yuchen Xiong ⁵

• ¹ Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, Beijing Municipality, China
• ² Central South University, Changsha, Hunan Province, China
• ³ Renmin University of China, Beijing, Beijing Municipality, China
• ⁴ University of Jinan, Jinan, Shandong Province, China
• ⁵ Kyung Hee University, Seoul, Republic of Korea

The intensification of climate risks in recent years has notably influenced public choices regarding exercise behaviors and health outcomes. Using data from the 2014–2022 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this study integrates adaptation behavior theory, life satisfaction theory, and health-related decision-making frameworks to explore both the short-term and long-term effects of climate risks on the frequency of sports participation among middle-aged and young adults, along with the underlying mechanisms. Through empirical analysis utilizing fixed-effects models, 2SLS models, and a four-stage mediation model, the study reaches the following conclusions: (1) In the short term, climate risks significantly reduce the frequency of sports participation. This conclusion remains robust across different proxy variables, model specifications, and estimation methods, and persists after addressing endogeneity concerns. (2) Mechanism analysis suggests that climate risks influence sports participation by reducing life satisfaction and increasing digital engagement, both of which have implications for individuals' physical and mental health. Although climate risks initially suppress participation, their long-term effects are positive, reflecting the gradual formation of adaptive behaviors such as digital engagement and indoor exercise that can improve public health outcomes. (3) Heterogeneity analysis shows that the negative short-term effects of climate risks are more pronounced in urban and western regions, with no significant positive effects in the long term in rural and western areas. This study emphasizes both the short-term inhibitive effects and long-term adaptive responses to climate risks in sports participation, offering insights into how individuals make health-related choices in the face of environmental shocks and providing practical implications for policymakers seeking to promote both climate adaptation and health enhancement through public health initiatives.