ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Aging and Public Health
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1577265
Global Burden and Future Projections of Geriatric Gout (1990-2021): A Comprehensive Analysis and Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling
Provisionally accepted
- 1Department of Orthopedics, First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China
- 2Center for Reproductive Medicine, First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan Province, China
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Gout is increasingly being recognized as a major chronic condition in the elderly population, significantly impacting global disease burden, healthcare costs, and disability. This study, based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database covering data from 204 countries and regions between 1990 and 2021, evaluates the age-standardized incidence rate, prevalence, and Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) of gout among individuals aged 60 and over. The findings show that throughout the study period, all indicators have been on a steady rise, with particularly notable increases in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) areas and among elderly women. Inequality analysis indicates that while the burden of gout is increasingly concentrated in high SDI countries, the trends of increase in low SDI regions are also significant and cannot be ignored. Frontier Analysis further reveals significant differences in the burden of gout among countries with similar SDI levels, suggesting that medical infrastructure, preventive measures, and cultural factors may influence the epidemiology of gout. Additionally, Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) models predict that the incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of gout in the elderly will continue to rise up to 2036. These findings highlight the urgency for comprehensive management strategies, especially for high-risk populations.
Keywords: GBD, Gout, BAPC analysis, elderly population, YLDs rate
Received: 15 Feb 2025; Accepted: 14 Apr 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Wang, Zhao, Zhao and Zhang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Yingang Zhang, Department of Orthopedics, First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, 710061, Shaanxi, China
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