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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Aging and Public Health
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1575906
This article is part of the Research Topic Public Health Outcomes: The Role of Social Security Systems in Improving Residents' Health Welfare View all 17 articles
A GBD 2021 study of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias attributable to metabolic risk factors and forecasts to 2045 in China
Provisionally accepted- 1 Department of Geriatrics, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
- 2 Wuhan Third Hospital, Wuhan, Hubei Province, China
Background and aims: High fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and body mass index (BMI) are recognized as significant metabolic risk factors for Alzheimer's disease (AD) and other dementias. This study assesses the burden of AD and other dementias attributable to these risks in China using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data.We estimated deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and age-standardized rates of mortality (ASMR), DALYs (ASDR), and YLDs (ASYR) by age and sex. Temporal trends were analyzed via the average annual percentage change (AAPC), and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models were applied to evaluate the effects of age, period, and cohort.In 2021, China recorded 76,239.36 deaths (95% UI: 2,528.26 to 259,225.86) from AD and other dementias due to metabolic risks, a 4.7-fold increase from 1990.Females experienced more metabolic risk-related deaths (51,844.08 (95% UI: 1,457.44, 177,037.05)) than males. The ASMR, ASDR, and ASYR showed continuous increases from 1990 to 2021, with AAPC values of 1.03%, 1.31%, and 1.98%, respectively. A significant increasing trend was observed across age groups from 40-95 years, with percentages above 0. Females presented relatively higher risks than males after 1997-2001 and within the birth cohort groups of 1957-1966. The disease burden due to HBMI is expected to rise, while that due to HFPG will decline, notable sex will persist until 2045.Monitoring trends is crucial for interventions to reduce the future disease burden, particularly among women and older populations in China, to guide healthcare resource allocation effectively.
Keywords: Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, metabolic risks, High fasting plasma glucose, high body mass index, China's burden of disease
Received: 13 Feb 2025; Accepted: 20 Mar 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Zhu, Bi, Zhou and Li. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Wei Li, Department of Geriatrics, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
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