94% of researchers rate our articles as excellent or good
Learn more about the work of our research integrity team to safeguard the quality of each article we publish.
Find out more
ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Infectious Diseases: Epidemiology and Prevention
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1535977
This article is part of the Research Topic Research Advances and Challenges in Emerging and Re-Emerging Viral Diseases View all 15 articles
Comparison of Trend Analysis of Varicella Zoster Disease Burden between China and the World 1990-2021 and Disease Burden Forecast 2030
Provisionally accepted
Yufeng Xie 1,2*
Zhichun Chang 1,3 Huale LI 1,3 Yanfang Li 1,3 Ting Qin 1,3 Mingren Hu 1
Xinjing Yang 1 Jun Li 1,3- 1 Shenzhen Hospital of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Shenzhen, China
- 2 State Key Laboratory of Quality Research in Chinese Medicines, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau, China
- 3 Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China
Objectives：This study analyzes temporal trends in the age- and sex-specific burden of varicella zoster virus (VZV) in China from 1990 to 2021 and predicts the burden for 2030, comparing these trends to the global burden. Methods:Data from the Global Burden of Disease database (1990–2021) were used to evaluate trends in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated using Joinpoint to assess trends. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model predicted VZV trends for 2021–2030. Results:From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) in China decreased slightly from 1274.93/100,000 to 1270.58/100,000, while the global ASIR increased from 1244.05/100,000 to 1248.59/100,000. The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) in China slightly decreased from 72.27/100,000 to 72.03/100,000, while the global ASPR rose from 66.67/100,000 to 67.16/100,000. The age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) in China decreased significantly from 17.68/100,000 to 4.66/100,000, compared to a global decrease from 19.28/100,000 to 12.31/100,000. Similarly, China’s age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) declined from 0.40/100,000 to 0.05/100,000, while the global ASMR decreased from 0.35/100,000 to 0.19/100,000. The AAPC for ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR in China were -0.0056%, -0.0131%, -6.84%, and -4.24%, respectively, whereas global AAPC values were 0.0119%, 0.0183%, -1.97%, and -1.42%, respectively.The burden of VZV was influenced by age and gender, with ASIR and ASPR trends notably affected by age, while ASMR and ASDR increased with age. Projections suggest that the ASDR will continue to decrease in China by 2030, while ASIR, ASPR, and ASMR are expected to remain stable. Conclusion:In conclusion, VZV burden has declined in China from 1990 to 2021, with women more susceptible to infection and mortality. Despite the decrease, VZV will continue to pose a public health challenge, especially with China’s aging population. The global burden remains higher than that in China, and a slight decrease in the VZV burden is projected for 2030.
Keywords: Varicella zoster disease; Trend, Incidence, Mortality, Prevalence, Disability-adjusted life years
Received: 03 Dec 2024; Accepted: 24 Feb 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Xie, Chang, LI, Li, Qin, Hu, Yang and Li. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Yufeng Xie, Shenzhen Hospital of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Shenzhen, China
Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.