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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Public Health
Sec. Environmental Health and Exposome
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1524534

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Tracheal, Bronchus, and Lung Cancer Attributable to Ambient Particulate Matter Pollution Among Adults Aged 70 and Above in 1990-2021 and Projected to 2044

Provisionally accepted
Ke‐Jie He Ke‐Jie He 1*Haitao Wang Haitao Wang 2Jianguang Xu Jianguang Xu 1Guoyu Gong Guoyu Gong 3
  • 1 The Quzhou Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Quzhou People's Hospital, Quzhou, China
  • 2 Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
  • 3 Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian Province, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Background: Tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer attributable to ambient particulate matter pollution (APMP) is a growing global health concern, particularly in individuals aged 70 and above. This study aims to evaluate past trends, identify key drivers, and project future disease burden.Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 was analyzed for TBL cancer-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality from 1990 to 2021, stratified by SDI regions. Statistical methods, including Joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort modeling, and decomposition analysis, were used to identify temporal trends and drivers of DALYs. Future projections were made using the Nordpred model.From 1990 to 2021, global DALYs of TBL cancer due to APMP increased steadily (AAPC 0.75%). Population growth was the main driver, accounting for 79.37% of the increase, with epidemiological factors playing a varying role across regions. The highest DALY growth was observed in middle SDI regions (AAPC 2.99%), while high SDI regions saw a decline (AAPC -1.76%). Projections up to 2044 suggest a substantial increase in DALYs across all SDI regions, with the fastest growth expected among individuals aged 70 to 74, but DALY rates are projected to decline steadily.Population growth is the primary factor driving the increase in DALYs associated with TBL cancer, with significant regional disparities. Projections suggest a continued rise in disease burden, particularly in lower SDI regions, underlining the urgency for targeted public health interventions and strategies to mitigate exposure and improve healthcare outcomes for at-risk populations.

    Keywords: Tracheal bronchus and lung cancer, Ambient particulate matter pollution, DALYs, Global burden of disease, socio-demographic index, Age-period-cohort modeling

    Received: 07 Nov 2024; Accepted: 10 Jan 2025.

    Copyright: © 2025 He, Wang, Xu and Gong. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Ke‐Jie He, The Quzhou Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Quzhou People's Hospital, Quzhou, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.