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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Health Economics
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1518536
Analysis of Trends in the Burden of Colorectal Cancer in China and Globally from 1990 to 2021 with Projections for the Next 15 Years: A Cross-Sectional Study Based on the GBD Database
Provisionally accepted
Yulai Yin 1*
Xiaoyu Zhang 2*- 1 Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, China
- 2 Cangzhou Central Hospital, Cangzhou, Hebei, China
Objective: To analyze the changes in the burden of colorectal cancer in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, and to explore the disease burden across different age groups and sexes by integrating projected data from 2022 to 2036. This study aims to provide a scientific foundation for formulating targeted prevention and control strategies.Materials and Methods: This study utilized colorectal cancer data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database for the period 1990-2021. Trend analysis was conducted using Joinpoint regression, and future burden projections from 2022 to 2036 were made with an Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Key indicators analyzed included the Age-Standardized Incidence Rate (ASIR), Age-Standardized Prevalence Rate (ASPR), Age-Standardized Mortality Rate (ASMR), and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). Results: Between 1990 and 2021, the burden of colorectal cancer increased both in China and globally, although notable differences were observed across gender and regions. In Chinese men, the ASIR and ASMR have shown a continuous rise, reaching approximately 50 and 300 per 100,000, respectively, by 2021. Projections indicate that these rates will continue to increase through at least 2036. The ASIR in Chinese women also exhibits an upward trend, whereas the global ASIR for women has declined. From 1990 to 2021, both China and the world experienced a steady rise in ASPR, with minimal fluctuations. In contrast, while the ASDR has decreased in both China and globally, the volatility in China’s ASDR is notably more pronounced than that observed worldwide.Conclusion: The burden of colorectal cancer in China is projected to increase significantly in the coming years, particularly among males and the elderly population. This study provides critical scientific insights for the development of targeted prevention strategies and resource allocation, underscoring the urgent need to enhance early screening initiatives and health education efforts in China.
Keywords: colorectal cancer, disease burden, Incidence rate, prevalence rate, prevention
Received: 28 Oct 2024; Accepted: 04 Mar 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Yin and Zhang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Yulai Yin, Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, China
Xiaoyu Zhang, Cangzhou Central Hospital, Cangzhou, 061001, Hebei, China
Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.