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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Public Health
Sec. Infectious Diseases: Epidemiology and Prevention
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1512514
This article is part of the Research Topic Innovative Tuberculosis Case Finding Interventions: Lessons From the Field View all 13 articles

Age-period-cohort analysis and prediction of tuberculosis trends in China --based on the Global Burden of Disease 2021 data

Provisionally accepted
Zhifei Chen Zhifei Chen Xiaodie Chen Xiaodie Chen Minli Chang Minli Chang Dongmei Lu Dongmei Lu Liping Zhang Liping Zhang Yanling Zheng Yanling Zheng *
  • Xinjiang Medical University, Ürümqi, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Background: This study explores the epidemic trend of tuberculosis (TB) in China from 1990 to 2021, analyzes its relationship with age-period-cohort factors from 1992 to 2021, and predicts the development trend of TB in China from 2022 to 2046.Results: In 2021, it is estimated that there are 617,700 cases of TB, 37,300 deaths and 1,375,500 DALY cases in China, and the corresponding number of male cases is higher than that of female cases. From 1990 to 2021, the number of TB cases, deaths and DALYs, as well as ASIR, ASDR and ASR of DALYs in China decreased year by year. The AAPC of ASIR, ASDR and ASR of DALYs were -3.33%, -7.28% and -6.77%, respectively, all P < 0.05, indicating that the overall trend showed a significant decrease. With the increase of age, the incidence of TB first decreased, then increased and then decreased, while the mortality and DALY first decreased rapidly and then decreased slowly, and both reached the highest value in the <5 years age group. The period effect showed that the risk of the total population, male and female population decreased overall. The cohort effect showed that the risk of TB morbidity, mortality and DALY decreased significantly. The ASIR, ASDR and ASR of DALYs of TB in China are predicted to decrease year by year from 2022 to 2046. The BAPC model predicts that the number of cases, deaths and DALYs will reach 177,100,077,000 and 181,700 in 2046, respectively.Conclusion: The APC model shows that the earlier the contemporary people are born, the older the age, the higher the risk of disease. APC and BAPC models predict that the ASR of TB in China will decrease year by year, but men and the elderly are still at high risk of TB burden in China. It is recommended to strengthen the screening of TB patients in key populations, especially in the elderly.

    Keywords: Tuberculosis, Joinpoint regression model, APC model, BAPC model, prediction

    Received: 16 Oct 2024; Accepted: 17 Jan 2025.

    Copyright: © 2025 Chen, Chen, Chang, Lu, Zhang and Zheng. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Yanling Zheng, Xinjiang Medical University, Ürümqi, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.