Disease burden and attributable risk factors of major depressive disorder in China, Japan, and South Korea from 1990 to 2021 and its prediction to 2035

Wang, Yifan; Zhu, Jingwen; Zhou, Jihong

doi:10.3389/fpubh.2025.1510091

ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Public Health

Sec. Public Mental Health

Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1510091

This article is part of the Research Topic Youth Mental Health, Particularly in Asian Populations View all 65 articles

Disease burden and attributable risk factors of major depressive disorder in China, Japan, and South Korea from 1990 to 2021 and its prediction to 2035

Provisionally accepted

Yifan Wang

Jingwen Zhu

Jihong Zhou ^*

Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

Objective: To analyze the disease burden of major depressive disorder (MDD) and risk factors associated with MDD in China, Japan, and South Korea(CJK) from 1990 to 2021, to explore the effects of age, period, and cohort on the disease burden of MDD, and to predict the burden of MDD in CJK from 2021 to 2035. Methods: The Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD) database was searched to collect the incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors of MDD in CJK. Trends in MDD burden from 1990-2021 were analyzed using Joinpoint 4.9.1.0. Age-period-cohort(APC) analyses were performed using the APC Web Tool. Bayesian age-period-cohort analyses(BAPC) were performed using R4.4.1. Results: Japan had the highest burden of MDD, followed by South Korea, and China had the lowest burden of MDD; The average annual percentage change(AAPC) of MDD burden indicators in China was less than 0, while in Japan and South Korea it was greater than 0. In 2021, middle-aged people aged 55-59 years had the highest burden of MDD in China, while in Japan and South Korea, young people aged 20-29 years had the highest burden of MDD, and the burden of MDD was higher among females than males in CJK from 1990 to 2021; APC analyses showed that the net drifts, local drifts, and RR values of the MDD burden indicators in CJK in terms of age, period, and cohort effects were closely related to the economic forms and aging populations; MDD had 3 levels and 5 risk factors; The burden of MDD in China would be in a decreasing trend between 2021 and 2035, and the burden of MDD in Japan and South Korea would be in a decreasing trend between 2021 and 2022, and an increasing trend between 2022 and 2035. Conclusion: There are both commonalities and differences in the burden of MDD in CJK, while the current burden of MDD in CJK is lower than the global average. Compared with Japan and South Korea China has a lower burden of MDD, but all three countries still face enormous challenges in the prevention and control of MDD.

Keywords: China, Japan, and South Korea, GBD database, Major Depressive Disorder, disease burden, Age period cohort analysis, Risk factors, Bayesian age-period-cohort

Received: 12 Oct 2024; Accepted: 31 Mar 2025.

Copyright: © 2025 Wang, Zhu and Zhou. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

* Correspondence: Jihong Zhou, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou, 510006, Guangdong Province, China

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