Development a nomogram model for predicting dementia risk in the elderly population of Weifang, Shandong Province, China: Based the biopsychosocial model

Pengxin Geng Wenjia Feng Weiqin Cai Hongqing An ^* Anning Ma ^*

• Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, China

Background: Dementia has emerged as a predominant health challenge. However, there is a notable research gap in the collective screening of dementia risks. Hence, there is a pressing need to formulate a dementia prediction tool tailored to the elderly demographic, enabling the identification of high-risk individuals for dementia. Methods: From May to October 2023, a multi-stage sampling method was utilized to survey elderly individuals aged 60 and above in Weifang. This study employed the Brief Community Screening Instrument for Dementia (BCSI-D) for the identification of individuals with dementia. We integrated the biopsychosocial model to construct a comprehensive pool of factors influencing dementia. Employing the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and multivariate logistic regression analyses, independent influencing factors were identified to construct a nomogram prediction model. Results: 660 valid questionnaires were included in the final analysis, with a validity rate of 95.23%. We identified 178 cases of dementia using the BCSI-D. Napping, lack of concentration, self-assessed health status, education level, residence, social interaction and medical insurance were independent influencing factors for dementia. The efficiency analysis of the prediction model, constructed using these factors, demonstrated area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.751 for the training set and 0.794 for the test set. The decision curve analysis threshold probabilities for the training and test sets were 5%-60% and 1%-60%, respectively. The calibration curves of both datasets exhibited a high degree of fitting with the predicted curve. Conclusion: We developed a dementia risk identification model with noteworthy predictive performance. The proposed model offers theoretical and data support for collective dementia screening.