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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Public Health
Sec. Infectious Diseases: Epidemiology and Prevention
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1393763
This article is part of the Research Topic Global Infectious Disease Surveillance Technologies and Data Sharing Protocols View all 9 articles

Effect and prediction of long-term weather and pollutants exposure on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: Based on statistical models

Provisionally accepted
Weiming Hou Weiming Hou *
  • Air Force General Hospital PLA, Beijing, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Background: Previous studies have typically explored daily lagged relationships among hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and meteorology, with little seasonal exploration of monthly lagged relationships, interactions and multiple predictions among hemorrhagic fever and pollutants.protective effect at extreme high levels of PM2.5. And high levels of AQI, PM10 and low levels of PM2.5 showed a protective lag effect. The model of PM2.5 and AQI interaction pollution is better. The support vector machines (SVM)-Radial algorithm outperformed other algorithms, where the predictive variables of pollutants performed well.Conclusions: This is the first mathematically based study of seasonal threshold of HFRS in Northeast China, which allows accurate estimation of epidemic level. Our findings support that long-term exposure to air pollution is the risk factor for HFRS.We should focus on pollutants monitoring in cold condition and HFRS prediction modeling.

    Keywords: Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome, moving epidemic method, pollutants, Time series models, machine learning

    Received: 29 Feb 2024; Accepted: 15 Jan 2025.

    Copyright: © 2025 Hou. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Weiming Hou, Air Force General Hospital PLA, Beijing, China

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