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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Public Health
Sec. Infectious Diseases: Epidemiology and Prevention
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1507672

Long-term trends and comparison of the burden of lower respiratory tract infections in China and globally from 1990 to 2021: an analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 Long-term trends and comparison of the burden of lower respiratory tract infections in China and globally from 1990--2021: A joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis based on the GBD 2021

Provisionally accepted
Zhiwei Wang Zhiwei Wang 1,2Shuqi Meng Shuqi Meng 1,2Yan Fan Yan Fan 1,2Jianfeng Liu Jianfeng Liu 1,2Lina Zhao Lina Zhao 1Yan Cui Yan Cui 3*Keliang XIE Keliang XIE 1,2*
  • 1 Department of Critical Care Medicine,Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China
  • 2 Department of Anesthesiology, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China
  • 3 Department of Pathogen Biology, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Background: This study aimed to describe the temporal trends in the age and sex burdens of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) in China and globally from 1990--2021 and to analyze their epidemiological characteristics to formulate corresponding strategies to control LRIs.This study utilized open data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database from 1990--2021 to assess the burden of disease on the basis of based on the prevalence, incidence, mortality, years lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of LRIs in China and globally. Moreover, a comprehensive comparative analysis of the epidemiological characteristics of LRIs in China and globally was conducted via the joinpoint Joinpoint regression model, age-period-cohort model(APC model), and stratified analysis of the study method from multiple dimensions, such as age, sex, and period. Finally, we used an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the disease burden in LRIs over the next 15 years.

    Keywords: Lower Respiratory Infections, COVID-19 impact, disease burden, Epidemiology, PredictionMortality Rates, incidence rates, Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)

    Received: 08 Oct 2024; Accepted: 20 Nov 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Wang, Meng, Fan, Liu, Zhao, Cui and XIE. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence:
    Yan Cui, Department of Pathogen Biology, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China
    Keliang XIE, Department of Critical Care Medicine,Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.