Skip to main content

ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Public Health
Sec. Infectious Diseases: Epidemiology and Prevention
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1506266

Disease burden of tuberculosis in China from 1990 to 2021 and its prediction to 2036

Provisionally accepted
Rong Sun Rong Sun 1Liang Wang Liang Wang 2Hongfang Xia Hongfang Xia 1*
  • 1 China University of Geosciences Wuhan, Wuhan, China
  • 2 Wuhan Sports University, Wuhan, Hubei Province, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the oldest infectious diseases and continues to be a major killer of human beings. This paper was designed to provide insights into the disease burden of TB. Methods: The data was retrieved and downloaded from the latest GBD database. Joinpoint regression was done for the temporal trend analysis. The age-period-cohort model was introduced to get further insights into the independent effects of age, period, and cohort. The BAPC model was utilized to predict ASIR and ASMR from 2022 to 2036. Results: From 1990 to 2021, the ASPR dropped from 31,446 (95% UI: 27,902 to 35,142) to 30,557 (95% UI: 27,693 to 33,531) per 100,000 people, and ASDALYR dropped from 719 (95% UI: 611, 837) to 76 (95% UI: 63, 94) per 100,000 people with an AAPC of -7.009 (95% CI: -7.219, -6.799). ASIR and ASMR decreased from 109 (95% UI: 95, 125) to 36 (95% UI: 33, 40) and from 20 (95% UI: 17, 24) to 2 (95% UI: 2, 3) per 100,000 people, respectively. Men had a higher TB burden than women. The age-period-cohort analysis showed the age effect represented significant fluctuations with a valley at age 5 for incidence rate, and a similar but relatively simple pattern for death rate. Period effect and cohort effect showed both incidence and mortality rates significantly decreased with advancing time points and more recent birth cohorts. At the current decline rate, the ASIR and ASMR would be 26.12 (95%CI: 15.75, 36.48) per 100,000 people and 1.13 (95%CI:0.45, 1.81) per 100,000 people in 2030, respectively. And the ASIR would be 21.96 (95%CI: 6.14, 37.79) per 100,000 people in 2035. Conclusion: TB burden in China has decreased significantly overall in the past years. However, it’s still hard to achieve the national goal of “End TB” by 2035, which means more effective strategies for TB prevention and control are urgently needed. Effective strategies aimed at men should include increasing awareness of tuberculosis among both the general population and healthcare workers, promoting smoking cessation and alcohol reduction, enhancing disease screening and treatment access, and providing psychological support and care.

    Keywords: Tuberculosis, Joinpoint analysis, Age-Period-Cohort analysis, BAPC model, disease burden, GBD

    Received: 04 Oct 2024; Accepted: 19 Dec 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Sun, Wang and Xia. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Hongfang Xia, China University of Geosciences Wuhan, Wuhan, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.