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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Public Health
Sec. Environmental Health and Exposome
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1488742

Analysis of Effects of Meteorological Variables on Dengue Incidence in Bangladesh Using VAR and Granger Causality Approach

Provisionally accepted
Md. Jamal Hossain Md. Jamal Hossain 1*Nazia Sultana Nazia Sultana 1Anwesha Das Anwesha Das 1Fariea Nazim Jui Fariea Nazim Jui 1Md. Kamrul Islam Md. Kamrul Islam 1Md. Mijanoor Rahman Md. Mijanoor Rahman 2Mohammad Mafizur Rahman Mohammad Mafizur Rahman 3
  • 1 Noakhali Science and Technology University, Noakhali, Bangladesh
  • 2 Mawlana Bhashani Science and Technology University, Tangail, Bangladesh
  • 3 University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Background: Dengue fever is a serious public health issue in Bangladesh, where its incidence rises with the monsoon. Meteorological variables are believed to be responsible factors among others. Therefore, this study examines the effects of meteorological variables (temperature, rainfall, and humidity) on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. While previous studies have examined the relationship between dengue and meteorological variables using single model approaches, this study employs advanced econometric techniques to capture dynamic interactions. Furthermore, in the case of Bangladesh, this type of analysis is necessary due to the fact that dengue outbreak become one of the major issues. However, the analysis related to this issue is not available.: For estimation purposes, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, Granger causality tests, Impulse Response Function (IRF), Variance Decomposition (VDC), and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) are employed.Results: Rainfall has a significant impact on dengue incidence compared to temperature and humidity.The Granger causality test demonstrates that rainfall and dengue incidence are causally related unidirectionally. Rainfall can potentially have a short-term and long-term effect on the incidence of dengue, as per the estimates of the VECM model.Conclusions: These findings will assist policymakers in Bangladesh in developing a dengue fever early warning system depending on climate change. In order to efficiently avoid the spread of dengue in Bangladesh's dengue-endemic urban areas, this study suggests societal monitoring.

    Keywords: VAR model, Granger causality, Meteorological variables, dengue fever, VECM model, impulse response function

    Received: 30 Aug 2024; Accepted: 11 Nov 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Hossain, Sultana, Das, Jui, Islam, Rahman and Rahman. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Md. Jamal Hossain, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Noakhali, Bangladesh

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