Yue Li ¹ Congying Zou ² Weidong Guo ^1* Feng Han ^1* Tao Fan ^1* Lei Zang ² Guoshun Huang ^1*

• ¹ Taiyuan Iron & Steel General Hospital, Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, China
• ² Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, Beijing Municipality, China

This study aimed to examine the evolving trends in the global burden of low back pain (LBP) from 1990 to 2021 and predicted disease burden until 2035.LBP-related data were obtained from the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx) query tool. All estimates and their 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool in Global Burden of Disease, Injury, and Risk Factor Study (GBD) 2021. Data processing and visualization were conducted using The R Programming Language software version 4.3.2 and Joinpoint 4.7.In 2021, approximately 628.8 million people worldwide were affected by LBP, with approximately 266.9 million new incident cases and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 3176.6 per 100,000. Compared with 1990, although the ASIR and age-standardized disabilityadjusted life years rate (ASDALYsR) decreased, absolute numbers increased significantly. Projections for 2035 reveal a continued decline in ASIR and ASDALYsR for LBP. The LBP burden varied by the sociodemographic index quintile and GBD region, with the highest ASIR and ASDALYsR observed in Central Europe and the greatest decrease in East Asia. Globally, women bear a higher burden of LBP than men, with middle-aged populations experiencing the heaviest burden. Occupational ergonomic factors, high body mass index, and smoking remain the primary risk factors for LBP, with occupational ergonomic factors contributing the most to the overall burden.Despite a projected decline in incidence, the global burden of LBP persists, exhibiting significant regional and gender disparities. To mitigate its future burden, precise and effective prevention and control strategies targeting high-risk factors are imperative.