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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Public Health
Sec. Infectious Diseases: Epidemiology and Prevention
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1448974
This article is part of the Research Topic The Role of Birds in Environmental Transmission Dynamics and Impact on Public Health of Zoonotic Pathogens View all 9 articles

Risk Distribution of Human Infections with Avian Influenza A (H5N1, H5N6, H9N2 and H7N9) viruses in China

Provisionally accepted
Rongrong Qu Rongrong Qu 1Mengsha Chen Mengsha Chen 1Can Chen Can Chen 1Kexin Cao Kexin Cao 1Xiaoyue Wu Xiaoyue Wu 1Wenkai Zhou Wenkai Zhou 1Jiaxing Qi Jiaxing Qi 1Jiani Miao Jiani Miao 1Dong Yan Dong Yan 2Shigui Yang Shigui Yang 1*
  • 1 Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
  • 2 The First Affiliated Hospital Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Background: This study aimed to investigate epidemiologic characteristics of major human infection with avian influenza and explore the factors underlying the spatial distributions, particularly H5N6 and H9N2, as H9N2 could directly infect mankind and contribute partial or even whole internal genes to generate novel human-lethal reassortants such as H5N6. They pose potential threats to public health and agriculture.Methods: This study collected cases of H5N1, H5N6, H9N2, and H7N9 in China, along with data on ecoclimatic, environmental, social and demographic factors at the provincial level. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models, a popular approach to ecological studies, has been commonly used for risk mapping of infectious diseases, therefore, it was used to investigate the association between these variables and the occurrence of human cases for each subtype, as well as to map the probabilities of human infections.Results: A total of 1,123 H5N1, H5N6, H9N2, and H7N9 human cases have been collected in China from 2011 to 2024. Factors including density of pig and density of human population emerged as common significant predictors for H5N1 (relative contributions: 5.3%, 5.8%), H5N6 (10.8%, 6.4%), H9N2 (11.2%, 7.3%), and H7N9 (9.4, 8.0%) infection. Overall, each virus has its own ecological and social drivers.The predicted distribution probabilities for H5N1, H5N6, H9N2, and H7N9 presence are highest in Guangxi, Sichuan, Guangdong, and Jiangsu, respectively, with values of 0.86, 0.96, 0.93 and 0.99.Conclusions: This study highlighted the important role of social and demographic factors in the infection of different avian influenza, and suggested that monitoring and control of predicted high-risk areas should be prioritized.

    Keywords: avian influenza viruses A (H5N1), H5N6, H9N2, H7N9, distribution, Boosted regression tree model

    Received: 14 Jun 2024; Accepted: 14 Oct 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Qu, Chen, Chen, Cao, Wu, Zhou, Qi, Miao, Yan and Yang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Shigui Yang, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China

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