Du Zhengjing ¹ Xiong Fang ^2* Tang Yanjing ¹ Xia Xiaoling ^2* Hu Yuandong ^3* Cai Lujing ^2*

• ¹ Guizhou Institute of Mountainous Environment and Climate, Guiyang, China
• ² Other, Guiyang, China
• ³ Guizhou Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Guiyang, Guizhou Province, China

Utilizing daily incidence cases for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease (CVD) alongside concurrent meteorological data from four microclimate representative stations in Guizhou Province during 2021-2022, we firstly performed random forest and decision tree analysis to identify the significant meteorological factors influencing the incidence of CVD, and then we applied distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM) to assess the effect of meteorological factors on CVD incidence. The findings demonstrate that critical meteorological variables include diurnal temperature range(DTR), temperature change between neighboring days(TCN), diurnal pressure range(DPR), pressure change between neighboring days(PCN), and minimum temperature. The risk of CVD incidence markedly increases with narrow DTR, positive TCN, and colder conditions (low minimum temperature). Importantly, the influence of minimum temperature and TCN exhibits spatial heterogeneity. The thresholds of minimum temperature drops with the decrease of annual average temperature in microclimate zone. In the middle subtropical region of Jiangkou, the northern subtropical region of Xishui, and the warm temperate region of Shuicheng, there is a risk of CVD when the minimum temperature falls below 12.2 ℃, 10.7 ℃, and 6.7 ℃, respectively.When the minimum temperature decreases per 1 ℃ , the relative risk (RR) values increase by 0.11, 0.18, and 1.04, respectively. In the four microclimate zones, the critical threshold for TCN causing CVD incidence also increases slightly with the local annual average temperature's rising . When TCN exceeds the critical threshold (0.2℃ in Shuicheng, 0.3℃ in Xishui, and 0.4℃ in Jiangkou and Ceheng), the risk of CVD incidence increases linearly. DPR and PCN display varied thresholds across different microclimate without consistent patterns. DPR in middle subtropical region of Jiangkou and warm temperate region of Shuicheng may play a protective role, while the risk of the disease increases linearly when DPR is lower than 3.2 hPa and 2.7 hPa in south subtropical region of Ceheng and north subtropical region of Xishui , respectively. The effect of PCN on Ceheng and Shuicheng is not obvious. The short-term effects within 5 days with small DTR and narrow positive TCN are more obvious . The thresholds and lag times of other meteorological environmental factors remain indistinct in the four microclimate zones.