Skip to main content

ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Public Health
Sec. Digital Public Health
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1442728
This article is part of the Research Topic Health Literacy and Digital Health Literacy among Older Adults: Public Health Interventions View all articles

Multi-dimensional Epidemiology and Informatics Data on COVID-19 Wave at the End of Zero COVID Policy in China

Provisionally accepted
Xin-shen Yu Xin-shen Yu 1,2*Shaoying TAN Shaoying TAN 3Wanting Tang Wanting Tang 1,4*Fang-fang Zhao Fang-fang Zhao 1*Jie Ji Jie Ji 4Jianwei Lin Jianwei Lin 1Han-jie He Han-jie He 1,4Youxin Gu Youxin Gu 5*Jia-Jian Liang Jia-Jian Liang 1*Meng Wang Meng Wang 1*Chen Yequn Chen Yequn 6Jiancheng Yang Jiancheng Yang 7*Longxu Xie Longxu Xie 8*Qian Wang Qian Wang 9*Mengyu Liu Mengyu Liu 2*Yang He Yang He 10*Lan Chen Lan Chen 1*Ya Xing Wang Ya Xing Wang 11Zhaoxiong Wu Zhaoxiong Wu 12*Gang Zhao Gang Zhao 13*Yi Liu Yi Liu 13*Yun Wang Yun Wang 1*Dongning Hao Dongning Hao 9*Jingyun Cen Jingyun Cen 14*Shi-Qi Yao Shi-Qi Yao 1*Dan Zhang Dan Zhang 1*Lifang Liu Lifang Liu 1*David Chien Lye David Chien Lye 15,16*Zhifeng Hao Zhifeng Hao 4*Tien Yin Wong Tien Yin Wong 17*Ling-Ping Cen Ling-Ping Cen 1*
  • 1 Joint Shantou International Eye Centre of Shantou University and The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shantou, Guangdong Province, China
  • 2 College of Medicine, Shantou University, Shantou, Guangdong Province, China
  • 3 Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Kowloon, Hong Kong, SAR China
  • 4 Shantou University, Shantou, Guangdong Province, China
  • 5 Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
  • 6 First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong Province, China
  • 7 Other, Shantou City, China
  • 8 Other, Chaozhou City, China
  • 9 The First People’s Hospital of Yulin, Yulin, Shaanxi Province, China
  • 10 Guangdong Hybribio Biotech Co., Ltd, Chaozhou, Guangdong, China
  • 11 Institute of Ophthalmology, Beijing Tongren Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
  • 12 Jinping District People's Hospital, Shantou City, China
  • 13 Zhengzhou Second Hospital, Zhengzhou, China
  • 14 Medical College, Shaoguan University, Shaoguan, Guangdong Province, China
  • 15 Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Research, Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
  • 16 National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore, Singapore
  • 17 School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, Beijing Municipality, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Background: China exited strict Zero-COVID policy with a surge in Omicron variant infections in December 2022. Given China's pandemic policy and population immunity, employing Baidu Index (BDI) to analyze the evolving disease landscape and estimate the nationwide pneumonia hospitalizations in the post Zero COVID period, validated by hospital data, holds informative potential for future outbreaks. Methods: Retrospective observational analyses were conducted at the conclusion of the Zero-COVID policy, integrating internet search data alongside offline records. Methodologies employed were multidimensional, encompassing lagged Spearman correlation analysis, growth rate assessments, independent sample T-tests, Granger causality examinations, and Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) models for comprehensive data scrutiny.Results: Various diseases exhibited a notable upsurge in the BDI after the policy change , consistent with the broader trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic. Robust connections emerged between COVID-19 and diverse health conditions, predominantly impacting the respiratory, circulatory, ophthalmological, and neurological domains. Notably, 34 diseases displayed a relatively high correlation (r>0.5) with COVID-19. Among these, 12 exhibited a growth rate exceeding 50% postpolicy transition, with myocarditis escalating by 1708% and pneumonia by 1332%.In these 34 diseases, causal relationships have been confirmed for 23 of them, while 28 garnered validation from hospital-based evidence. Notably, 19 diseases obtained concurrent validation from both Granger causality and hospital-based data. Finally, the BSTS models approximated approximately 4,332,655 inpatients diagnosed with pneumonia nationwide during the two months subsequent to the policy relaxation.This investigation elucidated substantial associations between COVID-19 and respiratory, circulatory, ophthalmological, and neurological disorders. The outcomes from comprehensive multi-dimensional cross-over studies notably augmented the robustness of our comprehension of COVID-19's disease spectrum, advocating for the prospective utility of internetderived data. Our research highlights the potential of Internet behavior in predicting pandemic-related syndromes, emphasizing its importance for public health strategies, resource allocation, and preparedness for future outbreaks.

    Keywords: COVID-19, zero-COVID policy, Baidu search index, Granger causality test, Bayesian structural time series

    Received: 02 Jun 2024; Accepted: 30 Jul 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Yu, TAN, Tang, Zhao, Ji, Lin, He, Gu, Liang, Wang, Yequn, Yang, Xie, Wang, Liu, He, Chen, Wang, Wu, Zhao, Liu, Wang, Hao, Cen, Yao, Zhang, Liu, Lye, Hao, Wong and Cen. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence:
    Xin-shen Yu, Joint Shantou International Eye Centre of Shantou University and The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shantou, Guangdong Province, China
    Wanting Tang, Joint Shantou International Eye Centre of Shantou University and The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shantou, Guangdong Province, China
    Fang-fang Zhao, Joint Shantou International Eye Centre of Shantou University and The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shantou, Guangdong Province, China
    Youxin Gu, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, 4001, Queensland, Australia
    Jia-Jian Liang, Joint Shantou International Eye Centre of Shantou University and The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shantou, Guangdong Province, China
    Meng Wang, Joint Shantou International Eye Centre of Shantou University and The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shantou, Guangdong Province, China
    Jiancheng Yang, Other, Shantou City, China
    Longxu Xie, Other, Chaozhou City, China
    Qian Wang, The First People’s Hospital of Yulin, Yulin, Shaanxi Province, China
    Mengyu Liu, College of Medicine, Shantou University, Shantou, 515041, Guangdong Province, China
    Yang He, Guangdong Hybribio Biotech Co., Ltd, Chaozhou, Guangdong, China
    Lan Chen, Joint Shantou International Eye Centre of Shantou University and The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shantou, Guangdong Province, China
    Zhaoxiong Wu, Jinping District People's Hospital, Shantou City, China
    Gang Zhao, Zhengzhou Second Hospital, Zhengzhou, China
    Yi Liu, Zhengzhou Second Hospital, Zhengzhou, China
    Yun Wang, Joint Shantou International Eye Centre of Shantou University and The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shantou, Guangdong Province, China
    Dongning Hao, The First People’s Hospital of Yulin, Yulin, Shaanxi Province, China
    Jingyun Cen, Medical College, Shaoguan University, Shaoguan, 512026, Guangdong Province, China
    Shi-Qi Yao, Joint Shantou International Eye Centre of Shantou University and The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shantou, Guangdong Province, China
    Dan Zhang, Joint Shantou International Eye Centre of Shantou University and The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shantou, Guangdong Province, China
    Lifang Liu, Joint Shantou International Eye Centre of Shantou University and The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shantou, Guangdong Province, China
    David Chien Lye, Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Research, Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, 117549, Singapore
    Zhifeng Hao, Shantou University, Shantou, 515063, Guangdong Province, China
    Tien Yin Wong, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, Beijing Municipality, China
    Ling-Ping Cen, Joint Shantou International Eye Centre of Shantou University and The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shantou, Guangdong Province, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.