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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Public Health
Sec. Infectious Diseases: Epidemiology and Prevention
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1441240
This article is part of the Research Topic Global Infectious Disease Surveillance Technologies and Data Sharing Protocols View all 6 articles

Exploring the Influence of Environmental Indicators and Forecasting Influenza Incidence Using ARIMAX Models

Provisionally accepted
Xiaoyan Zheng Xiaoyan Zheng 1,2Qingquan Chen Qingquan Chen 1,2Mengcai Sun Mengcai Sun 1,2Quan Zhou Quan Zhou 1,2Huanhuan Shi Huanhuan Shi 1,2Xiaoyang Zhang Xiaoyang Zhang 1,2Youqiong Xu Youqiong Xu 1,2*
  • 1 The Affiliated Fuzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian Province, China
  • 2 School of Public Health, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian Province, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Background: Influenza is a respiratory infection that poses a significant health burden worldwide. Environmental indicators, such as air pollutants and meteorological factors, play a role in the onset and propagation of influenza.Accurate predictions of influenza incidence and understanding the factors influencing it are crucial for public health interventions. Our study aims to investigate the impact of various environmental indicators on influenza incidence and apply the ARIMAX model to integrate these exogenous variables to enhance the accuracy of influenza incidence predictions. Method: Descriptive statistics and time series analysis were employed to illustrate changes in influenza incidence, air pollutants, and meteorological indicators. Cross correlation function (CCF) was used to evaluate the correlation between environmental indicators and the influenza incidence. We used ARIMA and ARIMAX models to perform predictive analysis of influenza incidence.Results: From January 2014 to September 2023, a total of 21,573 cases of influenza were reported in Fuzhou, with a noticeable year-by-year increase in incidence. The peak of influenza typically occurred around January each year. The results of CCF analysis showed that all ten environmental indicators had a significant impact on the incidence of influenza. The ARIMAX(0, 0, 1) (1, 0, 0)12 with PM10(lag5) model exhibited the best prediction performance, as indicated by the lowest AIC, AICc, and BIC values, which were 529.740, 530.360, and 542.910, respectively. The model achieved a fitting RMSE of 2.999 and a predicting RMSE of 12.033. Conclusion:This study provides insights into the impact of environmental indicators on influenza incidence in Fuzhou. The ARIMAX(0, 0, 1) (1, 0, 0)12 with PM10(lag5) model could provide a scientific basis for formulating influenza control policies and public health interventions. Timely prediction of influenza incidence is essential for effective epidemic control strategies and minimizing disease transmission risks.

    Keywords: influenza incidence, Air Pollution, Meteorological factor, time series, ARIMAX model, Prediction Influenza incidence, prediction

    Received: 30 May 2024; Accepted: 29 Aug 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Zheng, Chen, Sun, Zhou, Shi, Zhang and Xu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Youqiong Xu, School of Public Health, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, 350004, Fujian Province, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.