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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Public Health
Sec. Infectious Diseases: Epidemiology and Prevention
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1436515
This article is part of the Research Topic Innovative Tuberculosis Case Finding Interventions: Lessons From the Field View all 10 articles

Tuberculosis Disease Burden in China: A Spatio-temporal Clustering and Prediction Study

Provisionally accepted
Jingzhe Guo Jingzhe Guo 1Ce Liu Ce Liu 1Fang Liu Fang Liu 2Erkai Zhou Erkai Zhou 1Runxue Ma Runxue Ma 1Ling Zhang Ling Zhang 1Bin Luo Bin Luo 1*
  • 1 Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
  • 2 Gansu Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou, Gansu Province, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    The primary aim of this study is to investigate and predict the prevalence and determinants of tuberculosis disease burden in China. Leveraging high-quality data sources and employing a methodologically rigorous approach, the study endeavors to enhance our understanding of tuberculosis control efforts across different regions of China. First, through nationwide spatiotemporal cluster analysis, we summarized the status of tuberculosis burden in various regions of China and explore the differences, thereby providing a basis for formulating more targeted tuberculosis prevention and control policies in different regions; Subsequently, using a time seriesbased forecasting model, we conducted the first-ever national tuberculosis burden trend forecast to offer scientific guidance for timely adjustments in planning and resource allocation. This research seeks to contribute significantly to China's existing tuberculosis prevention and control system.This research draws upon publicly available pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) incidence and mortality statistics from 31 provinces and municipalities of mainland China between 2004 and 2018. We organized and classified these data according to province, month, year, and patient age group. Overall, the sample included 14,816,329 new instances of PTB and 42,465 PTBrelated fatalities. We used spatiotemporal cluster analysis to record the epidemiological characteristics and incidence patterns of PTB during this period. Additionally, A time series model was constructed to forecast and analyze the incidence and mortality trends of PTB in China.Results: This study reveals significant regional variations in PTB incidence and mortality in China. Tibet (124.24%) and Xinjiang (114.72%) in western China exhibited the largest percentage change in tuberculosis (TB) incidence, while Zhejiang Province (-50.45%) and Jiangsu Province (-51.33%) in eastern China showed the largest decreases. Regions with significant percentage increases in PTB ✝ Jingzhe Guo, Ce Liu and Fang Liu contributed equally to this work.

    Keywords: pulmonary tuberculosis, disease burden, Spatial-temporal cluster analysis, Prediction study, China

    Received: 22 May 2024; Accepted: 19 Dec 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Guo, Liu, Liu, Zhou, Ma, Zhang and Luo. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Bin Luo, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.