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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Public Health
Sec. Infectious Diseases: Epidemiology and Prevention
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1430902

Environmental predictors of SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence in Catalonia (northwestern Mediterranean)

Provisionally accepted
Jesus Planella-Morató Jesus Planella-Morató 1*Josep L Pelegrí Josep L Pelegrí 2*Marta Martín-Rey Marta Martín-Rey 3*Anna Olivé-Abelló Anna Olivé-Abelló 4Xavier Vallès Xavier Vallès 5Josep Roca Josep Roca 6Carlos Rodriguez Gonzalo de Liria Carlos Rodriguez Gonzalo de Liria 7Oriol Estrada Oriol Estrada 8Ignasi Vallès-Casanova Ignasi Vallès-Casanova 9*
  • 1 University of Girona, Girona, Catalonia, Spain
  • 2 Institute of Marine Sciences, Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
  • 3 Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Madrid, Spain
  • 4 Institute of Marine Research, Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Vigo, Madrid, Spain
  • 5 Fundació Lluita contra les Infeccions, Badalona, Spain
  • 6 Programa de Salut Internacional, Institut Català de la Salut, Badalona, Spain
  • 7 Pediatric Service, Hospital Germans Trias i Pujol, Badalona, Spain
  • 8 Catalan Health Institute (ICS), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
  • 9 Centro Oceanográfico de Santander, Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Santander, Spain

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Numerous studies have explored whether and how the spread of the SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), responds to environmental conditions without reaching consistent answers. Sociodemographic factors, such as variable population density and mobility, as well as the lack of effective epidemiological monitoring, make it difficult to establish robust correlations. Here we carry out a regional cross-correlation study between nine atmospheric variables and an infection index (Ic) estimated from standardised positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test cases. The correlations and associated time-lags are used to build a linear multiple-regression model between weather conditions and the Ic index. Our results show that surface pressure and relative humidity can largely predict COVID-19 outbreaks during periods of relatively minor mobility and meeting restrictions. The occurrence of low-pressure systems, associated with the autumn onset, leads to weather and behavioural changes that intensify the virus transmission. These findings suggest that surface pressure and relative humidity are key environmental factors that may be used to forecast the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

    Keywords: environmental sciences, Epidemiology, COVID-19, Atmospheric variables, correlations, spread, Climate Change

    Received: 10 May 2024; Accepted: 01 Nov 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Planella-Morató, Pelegrí, Martín-Rey, Olivé-Abelló, Vallès, Roca, Gonzalo de Liria, Estrada and Vallès-Casanova. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence:
    Jesus Planella-Morató, University of Girona, Girona, 17004, Catalonia, Spain
    Josep L Pelegrí, Institute of Marine Sciences, Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Barcelona, E-08003, Catalonia, Spain
    Marta Martín-Rey, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, 28040, Madrid, Spain
    Ignasi Vallès-Casanova, Centro Oceanográfico de Santander, Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Santander, Spain

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.