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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Public Health
Sec. Infectious Diseases: Epidemiology and Prevention
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1424657

Systematic analysis and prediction of the burden of lower respiratory tract infections attribute to non-optimal temperature, 1990 -2019

Provisionally accepted
Shi Yu Shi Yu Liping Zhang Liping Zhang *Wu Di Wu Di Yilipa Yilihamu Yilipa Yilihamu Wang Lei Wang Lei
  • Xinjiang Medical University, Ürümqi, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Background: Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) remain one of the most deadly infectious diseases in the world, and non-optimal temperature is a risk factor for LRIs. The aim of this study was to analyze the global burden of LRI attribute to non-optimal temperature and its trends from 1990 to 2019, and to project long-term trends. Methods: Excerpts from the release of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, which analyses the burden of lower respiratory infections due to non-optimal temperatures from 1990 to 2019 using data on deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs); explores differences across regions, populations and seasons, and projects future trends in burden. Results: Between 1990 and 2019, there is a significant downward trend in the global burden of deaths and DALYs, but it remains high in infants and young children, the elderly, African countries and LOW SDI regions. Differences in geographical risk factors and economic levels lead to heterogeneous disease burdens across regions. In 2019, low SDI regions will have the highest burden, but high SDI regions will have the highest number of deaths. In addition, increasing SDI values were associated with decreasing trends in age-standardized mortality rates and disability-adjusted life years. BAPC model projections suggest a downward trend in the future burden of death and DALYs from the disease, but the improvement in the burden of death for women was not significant. Conclusion: Our study comprehensively elucidates the distribution and dynamic trends in the burden of lower respiratory tract infections due to non-optimal temperatures from 1990-2019 along multiple dimensions. The burden of deaths and DALYs showed an overall decreasing trend, but the improvement was uneven in different regions. In addition, the results suggest that efforts should be made to reduce lower respiratory health losses in infants, young children, and elderly populations. Effective public health policies and interventions to reduce the burden of lower respiratory tract infections should be sustained globally.

    Keywords: Non-optimal temperatures, Lower Respiratory Infections, disease burden, Long-term trends, projections

    Received: 28 Apr 2024; Accepted: 08 Oct 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Yu, Zhang, Di, Yilihamu and Lei. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Liping Zhang, Xinjiang Medical University, Ürümqi, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.