Skip to main content

ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Public Health
Sec. Aging and Public Health
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1421078

Developing a Rapid Predictive Model for Falls in Older Hospitalized Patients

Provisionally accepted
Mengmeng Hu Mengmeng Hu 1Sujuan Lu Sujuan Lu 2Jiangan Guan Jiangan Guan 2Wenqian Deng Wenqian Deng 2Yu Hu Yu Hu 2Yang Jingwen Yang Jingwen 2Keying Li Keying Li 1Mengdan He Mengdan He 1Zhiyi Wang Zhiyi Wang 1Chan Chen Chan Chen 2*Xiufang Chen Xiufang Chen 2*
  • 1 Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, China
  • 2 First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Background This study was aimed to identify the independent risk factors for falls n hospitalized older patients and develop a corresponding predictive model.A retrospective observational study design was adopted, comprising 440 older patients with falls history and 510 older patients without falls history during hospitalization. Data collected included demographic information, vital signs, comorbidities, psychiatric disorder, function absent, current medication, other clinical indicators. Results Mobility disability, high-risk medications use, frequency of hospitalizations, psychiatric disorder, visual impairment are independent risk factors for falls in older patients. The A-M2-HPV scoring system was developed. The AUC value of the nomogram was 0.884, indicating the model has excellent discriminative ability. The AUC value of the A-M2-HPV score was 0.788, demonstrating better discrimination and stratification capabilities.The A-M2-HPV scoring system provides a valuable tool to assess the risk of falls in hospitalized older patients and to aid in the implementation of preventive measures.

    Keywords: older patients, In-hospital falls, Independent risk factors, predictive model, nomogram

    Received: 21 Apr 2024; Accepted: 01 Aug 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Hu, Lu, Guan, Deng, Hu, Jingwen, Li, He, Wang, Chen and Chen. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence:
    Chan Chen, First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, 325000, Zhejiang Province, China
    Xiufang Chen, First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, 325000, Zhejiang Province, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.