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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Public Health
Sec. Environmental Health and Exposome
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1420457

Projecting temperature-related dengue burden in the Philippines under various socioeconomic pathway scenarios

Provisionally accepted
Xerxes T. Seposo Xerxes T. Seposo 1,2Sary Valenzuela Sary Valenzuela 2Geminn Louis C. Apostol Geminn Louis C. Apostol 2*Keith Alexius Wangkay Keith Alexius Wangkay 2Percival Ethan Lao Percival Ethan Lao 2Anna Beatrice Enriquez Anna Beatrice Enriquez 2
  • 1 Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaidō, Japan
  • 2 School of Medicine and Public Health, Ateneo de Manila University, Pasig, Philippines

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    As climate change advances, the looming threat of dengue fever, intricately tied to rising temperatures, intensifies, posing a substantial and enduring public health challenge in the Philippines. This study aims to investigate the historical and projected excess dengue disease burden attributable to temperature to help inform climate change policies, and guide resource allocation for strategic climate change and dengue disease interventions. Previously established temperature-dengue risk functions were used to estimate the historical dengue health burden attributable to increased temperatures. Estimates on the current health burden were also made by taking the attributable fraction per epidemiological week charted against the exponential risk function. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios were used to project future excess burden on a nation-wide scale. Between 2010-2019, 72.1% of total reported dengue cases in the Philippines were attributable to temperature, demonstrating that temperature is a significant driver of dengue incidence in the Philippines. The highest attributable fractions were observed between the warm-dry season and the early rainy season (Epi Weeks 15-25). Geographically, the southern, periequatorial regions of the country, particularly rapidly urbanizing areas, had the highest temperaturerelated dengue incidence. Projections under different climate change scenarios indicate a substantial increase in temperature-related dengue cases by 2100. The novel approach of estimating and projecting temperature-related dengue burden at both national and provincial levels, incorporating future climate scenarios, provides valuable insights for policy planning and public health programming for targeted interventions, early warning systems, and risk communication strategies in the country.

    Keywords: Font: 10 pt, Not Bold, Font color: Custom Color(RGB(29, 34, 40)) Philippines, Dengue, temperature, economic burden

    Received: 20 Apr 2024; Accepted: 05 Dec 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Seposo, Valenzuela, Apostol, Wangkay, Lao and Enriquez. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Geminn Louis C. Apostol, School of Medicine and Public Health, Ateneo de Manila University, Pasig, Philippines

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.