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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Public Health
Sec. Infectious Diseases: Epidemiology and Prevention
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1408316
This article is part of the Research Topic Drivers of Antimicrobial Resistance during and After COVID-19 Pandemic in Low-Middle-Income Countries View all 7 articles

Tracking Multi-Drug Resistant Tuberculosis: A 30-Year Analysis of Global, Regional, and National Trends

Provisionally accepted
Hui-Wen Song Hui-Wen Song 1Jian-Hua Tian Jian-Hua Tian 1Hui-Ping Song Hui-Ping Song 1Si-Jie Guo Si-Jie Guo 2Ye-Hong Lin Ye-Hong Lin 2Jin-Shui Pan Jin-Shui Pan 3*
  • 1 Sanming First Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Sanming, China
  • 2 Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian Province, China
  • 3 First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Objectives: To provide valuable insights for targeted interventions and resource allocation, our analysis delved into the multifaceted burden, trends, risks, and projections of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB).: This research employed data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 dataset, which used a comparative risk assessment to quantify the disease burden resulting from risk factors. Initially, this database was utilized to extract details concerning the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality, incidence, and the number of individuals afflicted by MDR-TB. Subsequently, regression analyses were conducted using the Joinpoint program to figure average annual percent change (AAPC) to ascertain the trend. Thirdly, the age-period-cohort model (APCM) was adopted to analyze evolutions in incidence and mortality. Finally, utilizing the Nordpred model within R software, we projected the incidence and mortality of MDR-TB from 2020 to 2030. Results: MDR-TB remained a pressing global health concern in regions with lower socio-demographic indexes (SDI), where the AAPC in DALYs topped 7% from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, the cumulative DALYs attributed to MDR-TB tallied up to 4.2 million, with India, the Russian Federation, and China bearing the brunt. Notably, the incidence rates have shown a steadfast presence over the past decade, and a troubling forecast predicts an uptick in these areas from 2020 to 2030. Additionally, the risk of contracting MDR-TB grew with advancing age, manifesting most acutely among men aged 40+ in lower SDI regions. Strikingly, alcohol consumption had been identified as a significant contributor, surpassing the impacts of smoking and high fasting plasma glucose, leading to 0.7 million DALYs in 2019. Conclusions: A robust strategy is needed to end tuberculosis (TB) by 2030, especially in lower SDI areas.

    Keywords: Disability-adjusted life-years, Incidence, Global burden of disease, multidrug resistant tuberculosis, socio-demographic index

    Received: 28 Mar 2024; Accepted: 20 Aug 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Song, Tian, Song, Guo, Lin and Pan. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Jin-Shui Pan, First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.