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BRIEF RESEARCH REPORT article

Front. Public Health
Sec. Infectious Diseases: Epidemiology and Prevention
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1403163
This article is part of the Research Topic SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines Beyond the Pandemic Era View all 6 articles

Predicting Herd Immunity Achievement: A Time-Series Analysis of Vaccination and Fatality Rates Using 1075 Days of COVID-19 Data

Provisionally accepted
Benny Yiu Chung Hon Benny Yiu Chung Hon 1,2Jeffrey Chan Jeffrey Chan 3Kei Shing Ng Kei Shing Ng 4Simon Ching LAM Simon Ching LAM 5*
  • 1 Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong Region, China
  • 2 Department of Psychology, College of Humanities and Socience, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui Province, China
  • 3 King George V School, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR China
  • 4 The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, SAR China
  • 5 School of Nursing, Tung Wah College, Kowloon, Hong Kong, SAR China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic, driven by SARS-CoV-2, has made vaccination a critical strategy for global control. However, vaccine hesitancy, particularly among certain age groups, remains a significant barrier to achieving herd immunity. Methods: This study uses Poisson regression and ARIMA time-series modeling to identify factors contributing to vaccine hesitancy, understand age-specific vaccination preferences, and assess the impact of bivalent vaccines on reducing hesitancy and fatality rates. It also predicts the time required to achieve herd immunity by analyzing factors such as vaccine dosing intervals, age-specific preferences, and changes in fatality rates. Results: The study finds that individuals recovering from COVID-19 often delay vaccination due to perceived immunity. There is a preference for combining BNT162b2 and CoronaVac vaccines. The BNT162b2 bivalent vaccine has significantly reduced vaccine hesitancy and is linked with lower fatality rates, particularly in those aged 80 and above. However, it tends to induce more severe side effects compared to Sinovac. Vaccine hesitancy is most prevalent among the youngest (0-11) and oldest (80+) age groups, posing a challenge to reaching 90% vaccination coverage. Conclusion: Vaccine hesitancy is a major obstacle to herd immunity. Effective strategies include creating urgency, offering incentives, and prioritizing vulnerable age groups. Despite these challenges, the government should have continued to encourage vaccinations while gradually lifting COVID-19 control measures, balancing public health safety with the return to normal life, as was observed in the transition period during the latter stages of the pandemic.

    Keywords: COVID-19, Vaccine hesitancy, statistical analysis, BNT162b2, CoronaVac

    Received: 18 Mar 2024; Accepted: 29 Aug 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Hon, Chan, Ng and LAM. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Simon Ching LAM, School of Nursing, Tung Wah College, Kowloon, Hong Kong, SAR China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.