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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Public Health
Sec. Aging and Public Health
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1346234
This article is part of the Research Topic Palliative and End of Life Care in the Post-Pandemic Era: Old Problems and New Perspectives View all articles

Future Scenarios of Palliative Care in Health System of Iran: A Multi-Method Study

Provisionally accepted
Salman Barasteh Salman Barasteh 1Akram Parandeh Akram Parandeh 1Maryam Rassouli Maryam Rassouli 2Rohallah Zaboli Rohallah Zaboli 1*Morteza Khaghanizadeh Morteza Khaghanizadeh 1*
  • 1 Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Tehran, Iran
  • 2 Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Tehran, Iran

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Paying attention to palliative care has accelerated in Iran in the last ten years. Considering the trend of aging, increasing burden of chronic diseases and increasing health costs, planning and development of palliative care is necessary in the future. This study was conducted with the aim of explaining the alternative scenarios of palliative care in the health system of Iran until the horizon of 2030.This study was a multi-method scenario planning with a qualitative using multiple methods design, which was conducted in 3 phases in 2018-2020. In the first phase, a list of driving forces was extracted using qualitative interviews and literature review. In the second phase, all factors identified in the previous phase were examined in terms of degree of uncertainty and cross-impact analysis, and two key uncertainties were extracted. In the third phase, based on two key uncertainties, four future scenarios of palliative care were formulated, validated and scenario strategies were presented.

    Keywords: Palliative Care, end of life care, hospice, uncertainty, drivers, Scenario planning, Future scenarios, Health system of Iran

    Received: 29 Nov 2023; Accepted: 02 Aug 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Barasteh, Parandeh, Rassouli, Zaboli and Khaghanizadeh. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence:
    Rohallah Zaboli, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, 56131-56491, Tehran, Iran
    Morteza Khaghanizadeh, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, 56131-56491, Tehran, Iran

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