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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Public Health
Sec. Infectious Diseases: Epidemiology and Prevention
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1326225
This article is part of the Research Topic Leishmaniasis: Control and Elimination - Volume II View all 3 articles

Application of improved harmonic Poisson segmented regression model in evaluating the effectiveness of Kala-Azar intervention in Yangquan City, China

Provisionally accepted
Hao Chongqi Hao Chongqi 1Zhiyang Zhao Zhiyang Zhao 2Peijun Zhang Peijun Zhang 3Bin Wu Bin Wu 3Hao Ren Hao Ren 1Xuchun Wang Xuchun Wang 1Yuchao Qiao Yuchao Qiao 1Yu Cui Yu Cui 1Lixia Qiu Lixia Qiu 4*
  • 1 School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, China
  • 2 School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
  • 3 Yangquan Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Yangquan, Shanxi, China
  • 4 Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Background: The Centre for Disease Control and Prevention in Yangquan, China, has taken a series of preventive and control measures in response to the increasing trend of Kala-Azar. In response, we propose a new model to more scientifically evaluate the effectiveness of these interventions. Methods: We obtained the incidence data of Kala-Azar from 2017 to 2021 from the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Yangquan. We constructed Poisson segmented regression model, harmonic Poisson segmental regression model, and improved harmonic Poisson segmented regression model, and used the three models to explain the intervention effect respectively. Finally, we selected the optimal model by comparing the fitting effects of the three models.The primary analysis showed an underlying upward trend of Kala-Azar before intervention (incidence rate ratio [IRR]: 1.045, 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.027 to 1.063, P< 0.001). In terms of long-term effects, the rise of Kala-Azar slowed down significantly after the intervention (IRR:0.960, 95%CI:0.927 to 0.995, P=0.026), and the risk of Kala-Azar increased by 0.3% for each additional month after intervention (β1+β3=0.003, IRR=1.003). The results of the model fitting effect showed

    Keywords: Kala-Azar1, Interrupted time series analysis2, Improved harmonic Poisson segmented regression model3, Effectiveness evaluation4, Yangquan5

    Received: 23 Oct 2023; Accepted: 18 Jul 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Chongqi, Zhao, Zhang, Wu, Ren, Wang, Qiao, Cui and Qiu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Lixia Qiu, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.