AUTHOR=Reyes Humberto , Méndez Constanza , Kalergis Alexis M. 

TITLE=Statistical explanation of the protective effect of four COVID-19 vaccine doses in the general population

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Public Health

VOLUME=11

YEAR=2023

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1253762

DOI=10.3389/fpubh.2023.1253762

ISSN=2296-2565

ABSTRACT=<sec><title>Objectives</title><p>To assess the effectiveness of four doses of the vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 in the general population and the impact of this on the severity of the disease by age group.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>By using data from the health authority public data base, we build statistical models using R and the GAMLSS library to explain the behavior of new SARS-CoV-2 infections, active COVID-19 cases, ICU bed requirement total and by age group, and deaths at the national level.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>The four doses of vaccine and at least the interaction between the first and second doses were important explanatory factors for the protective effect against COVID-19. The <italic>R</italic><sup>2</sup> for new cases per day was 0.5644 and for occupied ICU beds the <italic>R</italic><sup>2</sup> is 0.9487. For occupied ICU beds for &gt;70 years <italic>R</italic><sup>2</sup> is 0.9195 and with the interaction between 4 doses as the main factor.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>Although the increase in the number of vaccine doses did not adequately explain the decrease in the number of COVID-19 cases, it explained the decrease in ICU admissions and deaths nationwide and by age group.</p></sec>