Previous studies suggested a significant relationship between four surrogate indexes of insulin resistance and subsequent type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). But the association of longitudinal changes (denoted as
We extracted data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). Multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) of incident T2DM with four surrogate indexes. The restricted cubic spline analysis was used to examine potential non-linear correlation and visualize the dose-response relationship between four indexes and T2DM. The receiver operator characteristic curve was used to compare the performance of the four indexes to predict T2DM.
We enrolled 4,596 participants in total, including 504 (10.97%) with T2DM. Analysis results showed that four surrogate indexes were associated with T2DM, and the multivariate-adjusted ORs (95% CIs) of T2DM were 1.08 (1.00–1.16), 1.47 (1.32-1.63), 1.12 (1.00–1.25), and 2.45 (2.12–2.83) for each IQR (interquartile range) increment in CVAI-D, LAP-D, TG/HDLC-D, and TyG-D, respectively. Restricted cubic spline regression showed a non-linear correlation between four surrogate indexes and the risk of T2DM (
Compared with other indexes, TyG-D was a better predictor in the clinical setting for identifying middle-aged and elderly Chinese with T2DM. Monitoring long-term changes in TyG might help in the early identification of individuals at high risk of T2DM.